Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
891 FXXX12 KWNP 220031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was moderate, with background X-ray flux at C-class levels, several C-class flares observed, and even an M1.9/1n flare (R1; Minor) at 21/1931 UTC. Nine designated sunspot groups were present on the visible solar disk and former Regions 3663 (N25, L=38, Fkc/BGD on 06 May) and 3664 (S17, L=347, Fkc/BGD on 11 May) may well be present on the far side of the Sun as indicated by NSO/GONG helioseismology. Region 3683 (S23W87, Dso/beta) was not particularly complex, but it was the source of several C-class flares. Region 3679 (S09W46, Eki/beta-gamma) experienced some growth and held onto its mildly mixed magnetic structure and was the source of the aforementioned M1.9 flare. Region 3685 (S12E02, Ehc/beta-gamma) underwent minor changes, but was relatively neutral in evolution. The regions mixed magnetic field weakened, as did magnetic shear. All remaining regions were little changed or underwent decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate with M-class flare activity (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate) probable and a slight chance of X-class flares (R3; Strong) 22-24 May due primarily to the combined flare probabilities of Regions 3683, 3679, and 3685. Additionally, former Region 3663 is anticipated to rotate back to the visible solar disk east limb on 23 May. Old Region 3664 is a few days behind and anticipated to rotate back into view about 26 May - outside of this 3-day forecast window. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background. .Forecast... Normal to moderate levels, with a chance of high levels is forecast for 22-24 May; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values. However, there is a slight chance of an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm due to the slight risk of solar energetic particle events from mainly Regions 3683, 3679, and 3685. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced. Total IMF strength steadily increased slightly to 7 nT, while the Bz component varied, with occasional periods of southward direction. Solar wind speed experienced a minor increase from near 350 km/s to 400 km/s, with a brief late period escalation to ~450 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Mild disturbances in the solar wind field are likely 22-23 May due to nearby passing transients and an approaching CH HSS. The CH HSS is an isolated negative polarity feature that lies mostly north of solar latitude 30N, however, a southern narrow extension could provide a solar wind speed increase on 24 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in varied response to the minor disturbed solar wind field. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled 22-24 May in varying reaction to changes in the solar wind. Isolated active levels are probable on 24 May due to CH HSS onset.