Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
339
FNUS73 KDLH 171027
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for Fry Wildfire...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
527 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 CDT on May 17.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
An area of light rain was moving east toward the area this morning
and it should arrive between 8 and 9 AM. This rain was
diminishing in coverage though as it encounters drier air. There
will be additional showers through the day with total rainfall
between 0.05-0.15 inches today. Light winds will become south to
southeast and be from 5 to 8 mph. High humidity values will drop
to 60-65 percent this afternoon.
A cold front will move through the area on Saturday and a wind
switch and increase in speeds will occur after its passage. At
this time, winds should change to westerly between 1 and 4 pm with
gusts near 25 mph. There will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front but coverage of any
rain is not expected to be widespread. Humidity values will drop
to 40-45 percent on Saturday.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog early
in the morning. Slight chance of rain showers
early in the morning. Chance of rain showers in
the late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south to southeast 5 to 6 mph late in
the morning.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph shifting to the south 10
to 13 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (1600-18200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.07 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CDY MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov.....PTY PTY SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....FOG FOG RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 20 20 30 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............44 46 48 52 55 56 57 59 60 61 62 62
RH..............90 88 86 80 74 74 75 69 67 65 62 62
20 FT wind dir..NW W SW SW S S SSE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.5 6 6 7 9 12 14 14 14 15 15 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4
Transp wind dir.W W W SW SW S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.7 6 6 6 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 13
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10002 2 2 4 10 11 12 15 17 18 17 16
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of rain
showers through the night. Chance of
thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1900, then 2 until 2200, then 1 until
0300, then 2 until 0400, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 6 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4100-15900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.09 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 20 10 10 30
LAL.............1 2 1 1 1 3
Temp............61 56 51 51 51 51
RH..............65 72 86 86 86 86
20 ft wind......SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6
20 ft wind gust.15 14 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (ft)....1400 500 400 400 400 400
Transport wind..S 13 SE 12 SE 13 SE 14 S 14 S 15
Haines index....4 5 5 5 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/100016 5 4 5 5 6
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of
rain showers through the day. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the late morning and
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1000, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph with gusts to around 23
mph shifting to the southwest 9 to 10 mph with
gusts to around 23 mph late in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 3100 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 22 mph shifting to the west 20 to
21 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (6500-25200 knot-ft) increasing to
good (42300-59400 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.12 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 40 40
LAL.............3 3 2 2
Temp............51 59 67 69
RH..............86 72 59 57
20 FT wind......S 6G16 S 8G19 S 10G23 SW 10G23
Mix hgt (ft)....500 700 2300 3000
Transport wind..S 15 S 16 SW 21 SW 21
Haines index....5 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10007 10 42 54
$$
Forecaster...Dean M
Requested by...Preston Osland
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414450.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL preston.osland@usda.gov