Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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148 ACUS01 KWNS 311632 SWODY1 SPC AC 311630 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...THE ARK-LA-MISS...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough over the Red River and this feature is forecast to move east to the Ark-La-Miss by early tonight. An MCV was noted over central MS this morning with likely another convectively augmented circulation over the lower Sabine Valley. Farther north, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will remain centered over the Dakotas and displaced with a residual frontal zone draped from MN southwestward through NE and into the CO High Plains. ...Southern half of TX into the lower MS Valley... Expansive MCS this morning over the TX coast will continue to push southeast into the Gulf. The northern extent of the MCS has moved into southwest LA late this morning. Visible-satellite imagery shows a large cirrus canopy over the Arklatex. The airmass will become moderately unstable across southeast/eastern AR in areas void of thicker cloud cover and to the northwest of a weakening MCV. It seems some rejuvenation of thunderstorms will occur on the leading edge of outflow over LA and eventually farther north into AR later this afternoon. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard with the more intense thunderstorms. Farther southwest, a capped and destabilizing airmass to the south of an outflow boundary from the earlier MCS, will become strongly unstable as heating contributes to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE from south-central TX into the Trans-Pecos. Long, straight-line hodographs will favor supercells. Main limiting factor will be isolated storm coverage. An attendant hail/wind risk will likely accompany the stronger storms later this afternoon/evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Not much change in thinking from the previous outlook update. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while severe gusts will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/31/2024 $$