505
ACUS01 KWNS 020038
SWODY1
SPC AC 020037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND OF WEST TEXAS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, are expected
across the central and southern High Plains region, including
portions of the Big Bend of Texas. This activity should evolve into
organized clusters while spreading into the adjacent Great Plains
later in the evening. Severe wind, hail, and perhaps a couple of
brief tornadoes are the expected risks.

...01z Update...

Remnants of early-day MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains has
propagated into far east TX/northwest LA early this evening. This
complex of storms has grown upscale a bit and will continue its
movement southeast into the lower MS Valley where gradual weakening
is expected due to substantial convective overturning from earlier
activity. Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are the expected
risks for the next few hours.

Upstream across the Big Bend of TX into southeast NM, scattered
severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of a low-latitude
short-wave trough. Favorable southeasterly low-level inflow and high
buoyancy are noted just downstream of this activity. Continued
upscale growth is expected and an MCS should ultimately evolve over
the next several hours. Subsequent movement toward the middle Rio
Grande Valley is anticipated by late evening. Hail/wind will be
noted with this convection.

LLJ is forecast to increase across the central High Plains after
sunset. Scattered convection has developed from the NE Panhandle
into western KS. 00z soundings across this region exhibit
substantial instability with 2100 J/kg of MLCAPE noted at LBF along
with very steep lapse rates. Nocturnal LLJ influences should
contribute to one or more MCSs over NE/KS later this evening.

..Darrow.. 06/02/2024

$$