Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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820 FXUS63 KEAX 251715 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1215 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are likely to impact the region late tonight into early Sunday morning. All severe hazards will be possible, as well as locally heavy rainfall. - Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible on Sunday afternoon, primarily toward central Missouri. - Quieter weather arrives for Monday through Wednesday, with seasonal temperatures and relatively low humidity. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Currently clear and calm across the region with temperatures in the 50s to around 60 degrees as surface high pressure is sitting over the area. A pleasant day is expected for the daytime hours today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations, along with generally low humidity at least through mid afternoon. By this afternoon, a moderately amplified mid/upper level trough with embedded perturbations moves out of the Desert Southwest and ejects across the Southern Plains, with 50 to 60 knot WSW winds at 500 mb overspreading the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, by this evening, a very strong low level jet should develop over the area. At the surface, a low will develop off the Front Range, deepening as it moves into western Kansas by late afternoon with a warm front extending to the east. With the deepening low and the northward lifting warm front, strong theta-e advection will move into our area from south to north, with mid to upper 60 dewpoints by midnight for areas along and south of the warm front, which looks to be generally oriented near Interstate 70 at this time. With the pairing of impressive wind shear and moderate to high instability, a high impact severe weather outbreak is likely today across much of north Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas, with damaging wind gusts and exceptionally large hail possible this afternoon with initial storms. This evening once the aforementioned low level jet ramps up, a significant tornado threat is possible over these same areas. Thankfully, the higher threat area will remain west of our county warning area, but high impact severe weather is still very much possible for far eastern Kansas into western and eventually central Missouri. 06z CAMs have been a little slower with convective initiation, with the 6z HRRR suggesting robust, deep convection not initiating over central Kansas until around 10 pm tonight. These storms will likely grow upscale into clusters/linear bowing segments or potentially a full blown MCS as they progress further east toward our area tonight as forcing increases and storm outflows merge. These storms will likely move into our row of Kansas counties in the 1-2 AM time frame, with storms exiting to the east of the county warning area by around 6-7 AM. Severe weather is most likely along and south of Interstate 70 as that seems to be where the warm front will generally reside, with elevated and less severe convection north of the warm front. Given the messier storm modes, severe wind gusts up to 60-70 mph will be the primary threat. However, given the strong low level jet, low level wind shear and hodographs will support a solid tornado threat, especially for areas south and southwest of Kansas City. Despite a decent percentage of our CWA within a hatched hail region from SPC, messy storm modes will likely keep the very large hail risk tempered. Another concern will be the risk for locally heavy rainfall. 06z CAMs suggest the possibility of a swath of 3-4 inches of rain across our southern tier or two of counties (Miami and Linn in Kansas; Cass, Bates, Henry in Missouri), with flash flooding and river flooding possible on some of our smaller streams and rivers. Another round of strong to severe storms is possible Sunday afternoon, with CAMs initiating storms across central Missouri by around 4-5 pm, with these quickly exiting east into WFO St. Louis and WFO Springfield`s area. However, this will likely be dependent upon how the convection from Sunday morning evolves. Additionally, there could be some isolated strong storms further west behind the surface cold front on Sunday afternoon, with marginally large hail being the primary threat with these thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Quieter weather arrives by Monday. A couple of mid/upper level troughs descend out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest, pivoting toward the Great Lakes region on Monday and Tuesday, keeping us under northwest flow aloft sending a couple of weak back door cold fronts through the region. This will help keep temperatures near seasonal normals as well as keep humidity levels relatively comfortable with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s through Wednesday. As we head into Thursday and Friday, troughing moves into the western CONUS, and will increase southerly low level return flow, bringing in increased moisture and chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions expected through the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours. Overnight, strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to affect eastern KS and western MO. Timing looks like after 06Z for the terminals. Temporary restrictions to visibility and ceilings can be expected with this activity, as well as periods of strong winds. These impactful details can be better defined as storms organize over KS this evening. Storms move out tomorrow morning with potential for MVFR ceilings through the remainder of the morning hours. Additional storms, though more scattered in nature are possible tomorrow afternoon, after 18Z Sunday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...CDB