Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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770 FXUS64 KEWX 171910 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 210 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 The primary mid-level trough axis is in the process of advancing through the region today. The rain across our southern zones this morning has mainly shifted farther to the south into the CRP and HGX CWAs. However, our southern areas may still see a shower or storm clip the area into and through the afternoon. As a northwesterly flow aloft establishes in wake of the trough axis, we could see some isolated high-based convection develop from this afternoon through early this evening from just across the border into our Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plain counties. This convection is capable of gusty winds given the dry low-levels and the modeled inverted "V" soundings. Couldn`t rule out some small hail as well but highest probabilities for hail exist farther south with better moisture near the Rio Grande into the CRP CWA. Activity should wane quickly towards and after sunset. Majority of the region will not receive any rainfall today. Otherwise, enjoy the temperatures today through tonight as they will trend the coolest of the week. While not widespread, some very patchy shallow fog may be possible early Friday morning. A much warmer day will be expected on Saturday as mid-level ridging centered to our west and southwest starts to nose more into Texas. Under sunny afternoon skies, highs should reach the 90s area wide with some 100s out west along the Rio Grande. Saturday night into early Sunday should see dew points climb into the low 70s in areas located along and east of I-35. This will result in warmer overnight lows and the a better opportunity for some patchy fog into Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Upper level ridging will be in play for the beginning of the long- term forecast period into the middle of next week. Southerly flow at the surface will prevail as well. With these prevailing conditions, high temperatures will be on the increase for the beginning of the period. On Sunday expect highs to be near 90 in the northeast to 104 near the Rio Grande. By Wednesday, we will see middle 90s in the northeast with temperatures near 104-105 near the Rio Grande. Dewpoints will likely remain elevated and heat index values will have to be monitored for any possible need for heat products especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak disturbance may bring a chance of showers and storms late Thursday afternoon and evening and this could knock high temperatures down a degree or two on Thursday with warmer weather likely back for Friday. Will show some 20 and 30 PoPs during this time frame for the eastern Hill Country and northern portions of the I35 corridor. Lows during the long-term forecast period will be in the lower to upper 70s for most locations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR flight conditions likely prevail through the period with light winds. Isolated high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon along the Rio Grande and portions of the Edwards Plateau. Activity could be close enough to KDRT to insert VCTS in this TAF package from 21Z through 03Z. The high anvil cloud cover from this activity could stretch east into the I-35 TAF site locations. The morning may see some slight visibility reductions at the I-35 sites with light shallow fog. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 67 93 71 92 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 92 70 91 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 64 94 70 93 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 65 92 70 91 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 104 76 105 / 20 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 66 91 69 89 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 64 96 70 96 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 92 69 92 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 91 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 67 94 72 93 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 66 95 72 94 / 10 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...29 Aviation...Brady