608
FXUS63 KFGF 271956
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
256 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms arrives Thursday
  into Thursday night, with a 50% chance for more than 0.50
  inches over this 48 hour period

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Another interesting day with boundaries and shortwaves pushing
through the FA. The first shortwave pushed south and east of the
FA by early afternoon, and it is now affecting south central
Minnesota. There is also a scattered line of showers and storms
from Devils Lake to Garrison to Watford City. This area saw a
little more sun today, so it has squeaked out about 500J/kg of
MLCAPE, but weak effective shear. Finally a secondary shortwave
was located over southern Manitoba, which will move across the
FA tonight into Tuesday morning. After this last shortwave moves
through there should finally be a couple of dry days as 500mb
ridging moves back in. As this ridge pushes east, rain chances
return again for Thursday and Thursday night, and possibly
Friday night into Saturday morning.

The regional radar clearly shows the activity around each of the
areas mentioned above. This activity is fairly scattered (30-50%
coverage) and will likely hang around well into the evening.
Model guidance is indicating another batch of lower clouds
dropping from southern Manitoba into the northern FA around
sunrise Tuesday. This area continues to slide southward through
the morning, as it slowly thins. This, along with fairly steady
northwest winds in the 5 to 10 mph range should prevent much fog
from forming. There should be more sun around by Wednesday, but
temperatures may only struggle to get back to normal (around
70F).

As mentioned above, the next round of rainfall will move from
west to east across the FA Thursday into Friday morning. This
has been pretty well advertised in the ensemble solutions. The
more notable change today is that there may well be a break in
the precipitation after this initial line of precipitation moves
through. Therefore, eastern North Dakota could dry out again
Thursday evening, and areas east of the Red River could too on
Friday. However, so far anticipated precipitation amounts
shouldn`t deviate too much from the mention above (50% chance
for more than 0.50 inches over a 48 hour period). Behind this,
there could be another wave for Friday night into Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Tricky set of TAFs, due to up and down ceilings and continued
spotty showers and thunderstorms. The ceilings should stay
mainly VFR through the afternoon, but they could briefly dip at
times into the MVFR range (mainly with any shower/storm
activity). Pretty hard to time any precipitation at the TAF
sites, so mentioned VCSH and will update if something appears on
track affect a TAF site. Winds look to stay pretty steady from
about 340 to 350 degrees at 10 knots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon