345
FXUS64 KFWD 020804
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
304 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 106 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/
/Today and Tonight/

A meso-high built over North Texas in the wake of yesterday`s
thunderstorms. This has shunted the better moisture into Central
and Southeast Texas, with a relatively pleasant early morning
expected for most of North Texas. We`ll have to monitor a MCS as
it tracks across Oklahoma in the pre-dawn hours, since the
Corfidi vectors indicate it would clip our far northeastern
counties near sunrise if it were to sustain through the night.
Since the chance of this occurring is around 10%, we have not
included any mentionable weather in our forecast.

Southerly flow will re-establish and start to draw higher moisture
air north early this morning. The general consensus amongst the
guidance is that the boundary will reside near the I-20 corridor
by sunrise then lift into Oklahoma today. Low stratus, or perhaps
some patchy fog, will be possible near and north of this boundary
this morning.

Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
is expected this afternoon, focusing near three main sources of
ascent. The aforementioned surface boundary will be well to our
north, but it will draw a theta-e ridge over North and Central
Texas early this afternoon. Most parcels within this theta-e ridge
should be able to achieve their convective temperature, with
airmass thunderstorms developing early in the afternoon. Further
south, scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop near the
Texas Gulf Coast early in the day and move north into Central
Texas near/south of an outflow boundary. The third area to watch
for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon will be across Western
North Texas ahead of a modest shortwave trough as it moves into
the area. Since all of these features are relatively weak, it`s
hard to pinpoint where each will be and how/if they will interact
with each other. Due to this, we have broad-brushed 20-30% PoPs
across the area, with higher values near where we suspect the
boundaries will reside. The parameter space this afternoon dues
support a very low severe threat, or a 5% chance of a storm
producing damaging winds or small to borderline severe hail.

Most of the afternoon storms will dissipate with the loss of
heating after sunset. Well to our West, another MCS will develop
near the Panhandles this evening. A subtle shift in steering flow
winds will allow for the MCS` trajectory to move into North Texas
late tonight and early Monday morning. We also expect it to
maintain its intensity for much of the night due to a stout 30-40
kt low- level jet feeding the system. This system will have a
damaging wind threat as it moves into North Texas.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday through Next Weekend/

After a very wet and stormy May, it looks like the summer weather
will make the headlines this week. As storm chances decrease mid-
to-late week, the heat will take the lead with widespread highs
in the 90s. With plenty of humidity in place, we will also see
heat indices in the 99-105 range Tuesday through Thursday.

Monday`s daytime storm chances will highly depend on what happens
with the MCS coming south from Oklahoma late Sunday night. As
we`ve seen with the recent storm systems, not only they have
steadily tracked into North Texas during the morning, but also
have left surface boundaries that have triggered convection in
the afternoon. While it is difficult to pinpoint where these
storms will track/develop, at this time it appears everyone but
the far western zones will have at least a low chance for storms
Monday afternoon and evening. The threat for severe weather will
exist with any of these storms with damaging winds and hail as
the main threats. Some storms may also produce brief heavy rain
and isolated instances of flooding. Storm chances should decrease
Monday night, but we will continue to monitor the potential for
another complex traveling south into our area Tuesday morning.
Make sure to keep checking back the forecast for updates!

An upper ridge centered over Mexico and southern Texas is
expected to shift northward during the mid week period (Tuesday-
Thursday), spreading some its subsidence across the region. While
a mainly dry period will prevail for most of us, a few locations
may see some diurnally driven showers/storms Tuesday and
Wednesday. Confidence remains low to mention it in the forecast at
this time. Beyond that, latest guidance continue to highlight a
weak surface front moving southward late Thursday which may bring
low rain chances along the Red River into Friday. Northwest flow
aloft may also return next weekend and with that the potential
for additional rounds of isolated to scattered storms.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 106 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR and south flow will prevail at the beginning of the TAF
period. MVFR to IFR stratus has started to develop over Central
and Southeast Texas that will move north through the pre-dawn
hours. While most of the ceilings should be MVFR, there is a
30-40% chance of IFR at the D10 and ACT terminals between 11-15Z
this morning. The stratus should lift and scatter late in the
morning into a VFR Cu field.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected again this
afternoon. We`re confident of storms developing, but it`s hard to
pinpoint where the storms will develop. We have maintained VCTS in
all TAFs this afternoon. Most storms should dissipate this
evening.

Another surge of MVFR stratus is expected toward the tail-end of
the TAF period. A line of storms could move toward D10 from the
north around or after 12Z Monday. If the guidance remains
consistent, we will likely introduce VCTS to the extended DFW TAF
with the 09Z amendment and possibly a TEMPO with the 12Z TAFs.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  70  89  74  92 /  30  40  30  20   5
Waco                89  75  92  74  93 /  30  20  20  20   5
Paris               87  71  86  71  87 /  20  30  40  20  10
Denton              87  70  88  73  91 /  30  40  30  20   0
McKinney            86  70  87  73  89 /  30  40  30  20   5
Dallas              89  70  89  74  92 /  30  40  30  20   5
Terrell             86  70  88  73  91 /  30  30  30  20   5
Corsicana           88  72  90  75  91 /  30  20  30  20   5
Temple              89  74  91  74  92 /  30  20  20  20   5
Mineral Wells       88  69  90  72  93 /  30  30  20  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$