Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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863 FXUS63 KGID 181750 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1250 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and storm chances increase tonight (up to near a 65% chance) and continue across at least a portion of the area each day through Friday night. - Severe storms are possible Sunday through Monday night. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts, but a tornado or two will be possible. - High temperatures will mostly range from the 60s to the 80s and low temperatures will range from the 40s to the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 414 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Today and tonight... An upper trough is over the northern Rocky Mountains and northern Plains. A cold front associated with this trough is moving towards south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Currently, temperatures across the area are mostly in the 60s. The cold front will push through the area by this afternoon with gusty northerly winds. High temperatures today are expected to be in the 70s and 80s with the surface high across the area. Winds will shift to the south tonight as the surface high moves east. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 50s and low 60s. A shortwave will move across the area tonight resulting in an increased chance (up to near a 65% chance) of showers and thunderstorms. Widespread severe weather is not expected tonight but a few strong to marginally severe storms are possible. Sunday and Sunday night... An upper trough will dig southward over much of the western part of the country on Sunday. Shortwaves are still expected to move over south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Sunday. This will result in continued chances (up to around a 75% chance) of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Severe storms will be possible on Sunday with fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and mid- level lapse rates expected. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the mid 70s to upper 80s. Storms are expected to continue into Sunday night with up to a 70% chance. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Monday and Monday night... The upper trough over the western part of the country will continue to deepen on Monday. A cold front will begin to push into the area on Monday, but high temperatures are still expected to warm up into the mid 70s to mid 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible (15% to 25% chance) on Monday with chances increasing up to around 85% Monday night. Severe storms will be possible during the day on Monday but will be more likely Monday night as upper lift increases. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the low 50s to mid 60s. Tuesday through Wednesday night... A broad upper trough will be over the central part of the country on Tuesday. This trough will be accompanied by a cold front moving through the area on Tuesday. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid 60s to lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible (up to around a 65% chance) on Tuesday and up to around a 35% chance Tuesday night. Low temperatures Tuesday night will range from the lower 40s to the lower 50s. Temperatures will cool even more on Wednesday as the surface high moves closer to the area. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Rain chances of up to 25% will remain across the area on Wednesday. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be similar or a degree or two warmer than the previous night. Thursday through Friday night... Winds will be out of the south on Thursday with an upper trough to the west of the region. High temperatures on Thursday will mostly be in the 70s with up to around a 25% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s. The previously mentioned upper trough will begin to move over the central and northern Plains Thursday night resulting in an increased chance (up to around a 45% chance) of showers and storms. The upper trough will begin to move east of the area on Friday with a cold front pushing into south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures on Friday are expected to be similar to those from the previous day. Low temperatures Friday night will be similar to the previous night. Rain and storm chances (up to around a 40% chance) will continue Friday and Friday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Significant weather: Elevated thunderstorms possible late tonight. Rest of today and into the evening will be SKC with gradually decr wind speeds/gusts. In fact, by ~22Z expect sustained winds only 7-11kt with no more gusts. Direction will gradually veer from N to NE/ENE this evening. Confidence: High. Mid to high clds will increase towards 06Z as elevated shwrs and tstms approach from the SW. Have introduced VCTS 08-09Z and seems like model guidance is in good enough agreement to go with a few hrs of prevailing -TSRA in the 10-14Z time frame. This activity probably won`t be severe, but can`t rule out some small hail and gusty winds. This activity should weaken and shift E/SE by mid to late AM as overall pcpn chcs decr to 20-40%. Should remain VFR tonight thru Sun AM (outside of brief reductions in VSBYs in heaviest rn) with most CIGs above 5-8k ft. Winds will turn SErly around dawn and bec brzy late AM into the aftn. Confidence: Medium. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Thies