Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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619 FXUS65 KGJT 231130 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 530 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will be bring some isolated showers, maybe a quick storm, to the CO/WY border and the Continental Divide this afternoon and evening. - Widespread gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph will be common across eastern Utah and the Western Slope today. - Partly to mostly cloudy conditions continue Friday and into the weekend with the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the mountains both Saturday and Sunday. - Temperatures start a noticeable warmup Monday onwards. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 151 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 IR satellite is clearly showing the circulation around an area of low pressure currently located over Idaho. A cold front can also be seen stretching from western Wyoming down into northern Utah and Nevada. Ahead of the front, clouds are starting to fill in over NE Utah and extreme NW Colorado. While the closed low will drift across central Wyoming today, the cold front associated with the low will move through the northern half of the CWA today. Models continue to highlight some light precip along the CO/WY border this afternoon and evening before shifting to the Divide (central mountains northward) this evening through the early morning hours on Friday. Chances range from 20 to 40 percent and with QPF amounts ranging from .1 inch along the WY border and .2 inches over the Divide, there`s really not much to get excited about precip-wise. Might see a rumble of thunder as well, especially over the mountains. Upper level support for the low pressure and front will be in the form of a 90kt jet streak and as it moves over the region, we can expect some gusty winds to materialize. Latest guidance continues to suggest widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph from late this morning through 7PM, give or take. The front will make it through the northern valleys but won`t manage to make it much further south. Thus, highs for the northern valleys will be about 4 to 8 degrees cooler than yesterday while elsewhere, little change to highs from what we saw yesterday, still a few degrees below more usual late May values. We will also have to contend with a bit more mid to high level cloud cover today as well. Friday will a quiet day as the next disturbances out west will be poised to start moving through. This doesn`t happen until Friday night though so outside of some more clouds moving overhead Friday will be a quiet day. The northern valleys will warm up some while the rest of the CWA will see similar temperatures to those seen today. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 151 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Cooler than normal conditions will continue on through the weekend as anomalously low heights remain in place from the Canadian Prairies into the Western CONUS. The final trough/shortwave to dig into this general trough arrives to our area late Friday into Saturday and will bring shift to wetter conditions through this Holiday weekend. Temperatures will stay some 5 to 10 degrees below normal in most areas Saturday and Sunday with the threat of snowfall returning to the high country. At the moment, the biggest impacts appear to be limited to areas closer to timberline and above but snow flakes could fall as low as 9000 feet Saturday night into Sunday morning when the coldest air aloft filters in behind the trough passage. Memorial Day will be transition day as we warm back up closer to normal and ridging across the Rockies builds in for a few days. Highs by Tuesday and Wednesday will push to above normal readings of 5 degrees or more in most areas. Again this cool down has slowed the down the snowmelt and rivers levels will be trending downward through early next week. It is possible many river basin have seen their seasonal peak as SWE graphs continue their precipitous decline trends. A few basins in the central and northern CWA still hold some decent water and will see what the next warm up has in store...but overall..flooding remains a low probability outcome this runoff season. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 521 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 A cold front will move through the region today bringing the chance for showers and a few storms along the CO/WY border and the Continental Divide. Do not anticipate any showers affecting TAF sites. VFR conditions will remain in place though some mid to high level clouds will be present. Of more concern, will be gusty surface winds of 25 to 35 mph, and occasionally a bit higher at times starting around 18Z and persisting through 03Z. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...TGJT