Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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619 FXUS63 KGLD 310515 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1115 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily chances for strong/severe thunderstorms producing locally excessive rainfall continues tonight through Saturday. - Warm/quite warm with only 20%-30% chances for thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. Highs in the 80s and 90s. - Dry Wednesday and Thursday with high in the 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 827 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Thunderstorms continue to drift to the east slowly with radar estimated QPE and other dual pol products indicating fairly robust rainfall rates with a few stronger storms producing large hail, although coverage is very limited. Short range models really struggling with overall development as large scale forcing is weak and it looks like storms may organize around small scale MCV to the south and along stalled frontal zone/impinging weak LLJ to the north. Activity will continue to drift to the east, although confidence in specifics is low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Tonight...another round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into western Kit Carson county by 6 PM MDT, continuing east or east-southeast toward Highway 27 by 9 PM MDT. After 9 PM MDT, the currently forecast is for these storms to continue moving toward the east with possibly another cluster of thunderstorms to develop along and north of the KS/NE border where convergence along a cold front is forecast. The two separate areas/clusters of thunderstorms may merge after midnight across Norton/Graham counties. Primary hazards will be large hail, strong damaging wind gusts and excessive rainfall that could produce flooding/flash flooding. Those who received heavy rainfall Wednesday night would have a heightened threat for flooding/flash flooding. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 50s. Friday-Friday night...despite some mid level dry air moving in behind any morning convection, there remains ample moisture below 700mb to combine with daytime heating to support at least a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day. Overnight, another weather system moves off the Colorado front range and through the area, supporting a chance for showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 70s to near 80 with low temperatures in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Saturday-Saturday night...another round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the afternoon and overnight hours as another weather system moves through from the west. High temperatures rise into the lower to middle 80s with low temperatures in the lower 50s to around 60. Sunday-Sunday night...a weak weather disturbance embedded within nearly zonal flow aloft may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms north of I-70 in the afternoon with coverage expanding to areas generally east of Highway 27 overnight. High temperatures rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures in the lower 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Monday...presently, a generally dry forecast is anticipated as moisture from 850-500mb is a bit drier compared to the past several days. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Tuesday...slight chance and low chance pops for showers and thunderstorms exists in the afternoon through overnight hours as the influence of a passing upper level low triggers a few storms. High temperatures warm back up into the 90 to 95 degree range with low temperatures in the 50s. Wednesday...dry weather is currently forecast upper a building upper level ridge. High temperatures cool a bit into the 80 to 85 degree range with low temperatures in the 50s. Thursday...dry weather is again forecast with high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s and low temperatures in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1057 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Two clusters of thunderstorms currently in vicinity of both terminal locations and expect thunderstorms to linger around KGLD until 08Z and around MCK till 10Z. Forcing for these thunderstorms is somewhat ill defined which is causing below normal confidence in timing and impacts. Once thunderstorms end, very moist airmass with easterly flow will be in place will provide favorable set up for low stratus development or a few areas of fog. While confidence is low in specifics, reasonable threat exists that IFR conditions (whether fog or stratus) will prevail through the morning hours. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 513 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 The flooding chance for parts of the area have increased today with much of the area from Kit Carson [CO] county to Logan [KS] county and south seeing a total of 2 to 5 inches across the past two evenings. The main help in these areas is that they were relatively dry before the storms moved through which has seemed to help mitigate any potential flooding so far. For today, we are watching for a couple of clusters to develop in the area. Unfortunately, they are favoring the areas that have seen the rainfall the past few days. These storms could cluster and/or move slowly which would likely lead to another few inches of rainfall. With soil saturation estimated to near 50% or more, flooding will become more likely, especially in an instance where another quick 3+ inches falls. Going into the weekend, the flooding threat continues though Friday has a bit lower of a chance right now with the forecast suggesting faster storms and lesser coverage. Saturday and Sunday however have the chance to add more heavy rain to areas that have already seen decent rain. Will need to see how much the area gets today. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE... SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...JRM HYDROLOGY...CA