602
FXUS62 KGSP 010502
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
102 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure centered over the region will keep temperatures
slightly below normal, with dry weather persisting through Saturday.
High pressure shifts offshore Sunday with warming temperatures and
increasing moisture. A more active stretch of weather may return
early next week with daily afternoon thunderstorm chances within a
summer like pattern. Another cold front will approach the area late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM Update...Made minor changes to the going fcst. Decent cloud
cover persists as upstream moisture traverses an ulvl ridge axis.
Low temps will be a little tricky across the wrn zones where the
thicker Ci continues to cross and rad cooling becomes more
limited. Thus, have bumped up mins a degree or two in these areas.

A robust upper trof will continue to translate eastward and off the
Atlantic Coast while a stout upper ridge builds over the eastern
CONUS. By the end of the near-term period Saturday evening, an
embedded upper shortwave will help push the upper ridge axis further
east and over the Atlantic Coast. At the sfc, broad high pressure
will continue to slide SSE thru the period and will be moving off
the SE Coast by the end of the period. This should keep us dry with
below normal temperatures and dew points for Saturday. Relative
humidity values will likely bottom-out near critical values again
Saturday aftn mostly over the NC Piedmont, however relatively weak
winds should limit any fire danger concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 pm Friday: Deep layer ridging will finally have
relinquished much of its influence across our area early in the
short term, with low level moisture increasing around the western
periphery of the western Atlantic-centered anticyclone. Showers
originating from a pre-frontal environment across the TN Valley may
make a run toward the CWA as early as Sunday morning, during which
time PoPs increase to the chance category across our western areas.
The increasing moisture should support weak destabilization Sunday
afternoon, with scattered diurnal convection anticipated, especially
across the mountains, where general 40-60 PoPs are advertised. With
surface high remaining centered over the western Atlantic, S/SW flow
will support the continued increase of moisture during the latter
half of the period, with another afternoon/evening of isolated/
widely scattered convection anticipated Tuesday. Temperatures will
generally be right around normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 pm Friday: The upper air pattern will remain somewhat
nebulous during at least the first half of the medium range, with
levels of heating, moisture (and by extension, diurnal instability)
expected to return to...if not a little higher than seasonal normals
by the middle of next week. As such, this period of time will be
dominated by scattered diurnal convection (generally 30-50 PoPs) and
steadily warming temps. By late in the week, the global models are
converging toward a consensus of introducing substantial height
falls to the East...advertising a deep upper low moving into the
Great Lakes region by the end of the period. Associated frontal zone
could enhance diurnal convective chances Thursday, although
confidence in timing is such that we generally stick with
slightly-above-climo PoPs on Thursday, with a transition to
diurnal/token convective chances next Friday. Temps are forecast to
be a category or so above climo through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conds continue thru the 06z TAF period.
Upper clouds dominate as stg ulvl ridging slowly shifts east in
advance of a s/w trof progged to cross the region Sat night. Expect
lowering clouds by the late period with MVFR CIGS possible at KAVL
aft 00z. Winds remain south to se/ly all sites as sfc high becomes
situated off the Atl coast. No great gust potential as the mixed
layer remains weakly energized, but there could be isol low-end
gusts this afternoon and again very late period as the atmos becomes
a little more dynamic.

Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday night into
Sunday and will linger into next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...JPT/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK