176
FXUS64 KHUN 011907
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
207 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Areas of showers/embedded tstms have started to taper off to the
NE heading into the afternoon hrs this Sat, although some light
showers are again developing over parts of west TN/north MS. In
any case, a passing upper trough pattern coupled with a moisture
laden air mass will keep scattered/perhaps numerous showers/tstms
in the forecast for much of tonight with rain chances near 50-70%.
Given the minimal instability/shear in place, the prob for more
organized/stronger storms is very limited. Overnight temps look to
be fairly seasonal for this time of the yr, with lows mainly in
the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Lingering showers/embedded tstms will then begin to gradually
taper off the east on Sun, as the upper trough axis moves east of
the mid TN Valley. Low to medium chances (20-50%) remain in the
forecast for Sun with the better chances east of I-65. With less
rainfall in place, afternoon highs on Sun look to climb more into
the lower/mid 80s. Given the previous rainfall, patchy dense fog
will then be possible late Sun night, as lows again fall predom
into the lower/mid 60s. This brief reprieve in rainfall will come
to an end as low end rain chances around 20% return Mon/Mon night,
as a series of weak upper disturbances begin to traverses eastward
over much of the region. Minimal deep layer shear should again
offset the prob for more organized tstms, although SBCAPE values
increasing to around 2K J/kg may translate into a few stronger
storms capable of gusty winds/brief heavy rainfall. Afternoon
temps will trend a little higher on Mon, with highs mainly in the
mid/upper 80s, before temps fall more into the mid 60s/near 70F
late Mon night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An unsettled pattern will persist through mid week. Another shortwave
will slide into the TN Valley on Tuesday bringing low/medium chances
(30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms. Upstream, an upper level
low will ride just north of the U.S/Canadian border and phase with a
shortwave located in the Northern Plains on Wednesday. The associated
sfc low will have a cold front extending all the way down the MS
Valley. This set up will be slow to make eastward progress due to the
blocky pattern just east of the Great Lakes. Prefrontal showers and
storms will arrive on Wednesday and believe coverage and the threat
for heavy rainfall will increase if another shortwave ends up
scooting through vs staying off to our north. The front will push
through some time on Thursday and POPs will taper off behind it.
Timing still isn`t great on exactly when the front will move
through,as this model cycle has it earlier on Thursday than
yestrday`s run. Will monitor trends to adjust timing and storm hazards.
Otherwise, daytime highs will run in the low/mid 80s with lows in
the upper 60s ahead of the front. Behind the front on Friday, we
won`t see a drastic temp change but will have highs in the lower 80s
with lower humidity and lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

MVFR conds are expected to continue into the early evening hrs, as
additional shra/tsra move NNE across parts of the area. Some break
in the rainfall is possible later this evening before additional
shra/tsra develop early Sun morning. Even with the tempo break in
precip, MVFR cigs look to prevail into Sun. SSE winds near 10-12kt
with higher gusts will also become light/var this evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...09