879
FXUS64 KHUN 011149
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
649 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Light rain has been observed early this morning and will continue
to increase in coverage as an upper shortwave lifts from central
Missouri and into the Great Lakes region today. Ahead of this,
moisture advection will increase as the sfc high over the
Appalachians is pushed farther east, allowing PWATs to climb into
the 1.6-1.8" range later this morning. As synoptic lift increases
along this shortwave, numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms
are expected today. Rainfall rates could be high at times, leading
to localized flooding concerns, especially in low-lying and poorly
draining areas.

As the day progresses, there may be a few hours later this
afternoon where an overlap of wind shear and instability could
support a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms capable of
producing gusty to damaging winds. SPC has maintained the
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for today for damaging winds as
SBCAPE values below 1000 J/kg is not supportive of large hail and
the shear/instability profile is not supportive of tornadoes.

Rain should start to lower in coverage later this afternoon as the
trough axis shifts east of the area, removing the better synoptic
lift from the Tennessee Valley. With that said, have maintained
medium chance PoPs (40-60%) east of I-65 heading into the evening
and lower (30-40%) PoPs west of I-65. Rainfall totals look to be
highest over NW AL and could range from 1-2", but should remain
less than 1" elsewhere. With cloudy skies and rain expected today,
highs will be limited to the low to mid 70s this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Rain chances will begin to decrease tonight and remain lower on
Sunday, but still expect to see some scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms through the remainder of the weekend given
the moist airmass in place. Low to medium chances (30-50%) for
showers and storms are forecast on Sunday afternoon with afternoon
highs a little warmer in the low to mid 80s. Will see a break in
the rain by Sunday night into Monday morning, where the primary
concern will be fog development overnight given the recent
rainfall and light winds. Expect low chances (20-30%) for
diurnally driven showers and storms Monday afternoon with highs
climbing back closer to seasonal norms, topping out in the mid to
upper 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s through
the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An unsettled pattern will persist through mid week. Another shortwave
will slide into the TN Valley on Tuesday bringing low/medium chances
(30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms. Upstream, an upper level
low will ride just north of the U.S/Canadian border and phase with a
shortwave located in the Northern Plains on Wednesday. The associated
sfc low will have a cold front extending all the way down the MS
Valley. This set up will be slow to make eastward progress due to the
blocky pattern just east of the Great Lakes. Prefrontal showers and
storms will arrive on Wednesday and believe coverage and the threat
for heavy rainfall will increase if another shortwave ends up
scooting through vs staying off to our north. The front will push
through some time on Thursday and POPs will taper off behind it.
Timing still isn`t great on exactly when the front will move
through,as this model cycle has it earlier on Thursday than
yestrday`s run. Will monitor trends to adjust timing and storm hazards.
Otherwise, daytime highs will run in the low/mid 80s with lows in
the upper 60s ahead of the front. Behind the front on Friday, we
won`t see a drastic temp change but will have highs in the lower 80s
with lower humidity and lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions are likely today as widespread showers and
thunderstorms impact the area. Southeast wind gusts up to 25kts
will be possible at times this afternoon as well as a low chance
for strong winds due to thunderstorms. Coverage will start to
lower from west to east overnight, but IFR to perhaps LIFR cigs
are expected during this timeframe. Amendments may be needed
throughout the day as rainfall varies in intensity.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25