856
FXUS62 KILM 291102
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
702 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and relatively cooler conditions are expected
through the end of the week with high pressure dominating.
Unsettled weather returns towards early next week as the high
moves offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold front will be moving just offshore this morning. Weak sfc
high pressure accompanied with WNW-NNW winds will dominate
today. Drier air will be noticeable as a sfc dewpoints drop into
the 60s wide. Will see some mixing this aftn with sfc dewpoints
dropping into the 50s away from the immediate coast. Base of Cu
field will be 5k feet and hier as a conservative estimate,
likely closer to 7+k ft. With winds W-WNW off the Appalachians,
could see enough downslope play (compressional heating) for
todays highs breaking 90, especially as 1 moves closer to the
coast. The sea breeze will limit highs, just below 90, at the
immediate coast as the sfc pressure/gradient pattern relaxes
allowing the onshore winds to occur. Its push well inland may be
limited given increasing offshore windspeeds above 8H. End
result, went slightly above guidance for maxes today. Tonight
the mid-level trof axis to swing across the FA with the main
dynamics and any pcpn staying well north of the FA, ie.
MidAtlantic States and northward. What it does to the FA is it
pushes a secondary CFP or sfc trof across the FA during this
evening. This will be followed with tightening sfc pg as a much
stronger high noses in from the NW, ie from the Western Great
Lakes. Look for CAA and even drier air, lower sfc dewpoints, to
infiltrate the FA under active NW-N winds. Tonights lows,
widespread 60s, with mid to upper 60s closer to the coast and
low 60s inland, especially along and west of the I-95 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Behind a dry cold front, northerly winds can be expected at the
start of the period with dewpoints holding mainly in the 50s
through Thursday. Mostly sunny skies and a robust subsidence
inversion will yield some flat cumulus and highs in the low to
mid 80s.

For Thursday night into Friday, a potent shortwave is expected
to dive southward through the Mid-Atlantic and pivot off the
coast of the Carolinas. Meager moisture concentrated near and
below 700 mb combined with lift induced by PVA ahead of this
wave should primarily yield increased cloud cover and may be
able to squeeze out sprinkles and perhaps some areas of light
rain near and east of the Cape Fear River on Friday morning,
although accumulation of 0.01" or more seems difficult to attain
in this environment. Curiously, a few CAMs suggest there may be
a few to several hundred J/kg of CAPE available, which could
yield some briefly moderate showers if this is realized. Given
this setup with limited moisture available, opted to maintain
silent PoPs for measurable precip (<15%) over land with slight
chance PoPs over the NC waters, focused in the morning hours.
The mid-level trough axis should pass overhead around midday,
with extremely dry air aloft and subsidence taking over
thereafter. A mostly sunny afternoon with passing flat cumulus
is otherwise expected with highs around 80F. Morning lows should
be in the upper 50s to low 60s given a continuation of dry
dewpoints from the near-term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure and mid-level ridging crest overhead late
Saturday and continue into the western Atlantic on Sunday. A
generally zonal flow regime looks to setup behind the ridge,
with multiple shortwaves crossing the region into early next
week. Whether these will be timed right to enhance or suppress
daytime convection remains to be seen. However, what is more
certain is that return flow around the surface high will bring
increasing dewpoints, warming temperatures, and an environment
more favorable for pop-up convection each afternoon.

Temperatures start out chilly on Saturday morning with mid-
upper 50s expected before warming into the low 80s during the
afternoon. After the high moves offshore late on Saturday, a
warming trend commences with both lows and highs rising steadily
through the end of the period to near or above seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR thruout the 12Z TAF Issuance Period. Inverted V soundings
with a decent subsidence inversion at 7H which will result in
high based Cu field with not much vertical development. Cu field
roughly at 6k to 8k bases. NW to N winds at 5 to 10 kt hold
thru much of the day, except a pinned sea breeze to mainly
affect CRE/MYR with winds becoming onshore, SSE-SSW at or less
than 10 kt. The next CFP slated for later this evening,
03z-05z, followed by winds becoming NW-N 5 to 8 kt. No pcpn with
this CFP but could observe altocu deck.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
CFP early this morning will result in NW-N winds around 10 kt
thru midday. By this aftn, the sfc pg relaxes and winds reverse
course and become S-SW given the progged sfc pressure pattern.
An active sea breeze will increase winds 10-15 kt near the
coast, where SC coast may observe SSE-S aftn wind directions
near the coast. A secondary CFP or sfc trof passage will occur
tonight, with an even tighter sfc pg in its wake as much
stronger high pressure begins to nose in from the NW. Winds
become NW 10-15 kt with g20 kt. Seas generally around 2 ft today
and 1 to 3 ft tonight, with the 3 footers 20 nm out given the
offshore fetch direction. Waves dominated by the SE swell at 7+
sec periods today, with short period wind driven eaves
dominating later tonight.

Thursday through Sunday...
Northerly flow at around 10 kts on Thursday morning will become
variable for the afternoon and evening before a secondary cold
front brings another northerly surge at around 10 kts overnight
into Friday. A mid-level shortwave may bring some light rain to
the NC waters on Friday morning as well, with winds veering to
northeasterly late in the day and continuing through Friday
night as the wave pivots through and low pressure spins up well
offshore. Surface high pressure from the Great Lakes will slide
southeastward on Saturday, veering winds further to easterly as
the high nears the coast. The high moves offshore on Saturday
night, with the flow returning to southerly on Sunday. Waves
initially in the 1-2 ft range on Thursday rise slightly to 2-3
ft for the weekend. 1-2 ft wind waves will be accompanied by an
east to ENE 2-3 ft swell at 7-8 seconds arriving between Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ABW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/ABW