502
FXUS62 KILM 290555
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
200 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and storm chances decrease tonight as the front pushes
offshore. Mostly dry and relatively cooler conditions expected
through the end of the week with building high pressure.
Unsettled weather return towards early next week as the high
moves offshore.

&&

.UPDATE...
Stationary frontal boundary was located just east of the I-95
corridor at 01Z, and some lingering weak surface-based
instability is allowing a few small, light showers to persist
this evening along and east of the front. The front should
finally push offshore after midnight as heights fall across the
Mid-Atlantic. Can`t rule out an additional light shower or two
popping up along the boundary, but chances will be kept less
than 10%.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Frontal boundary still appears to be nearly bisecting the area from
NW to SW, partially being halted by the advancing seabreeze. Other
than the strong/severe cell near Myrtle Grove/CB storms have been
hesitant to develop. Most CAMs still show radar fill in across the
Cape Fear and to a lesser extent the Grand Strand and based upon the
strong instability and low LCL`s this seems plausible. This
instability will wane quickly this evening and storm coverage and
intensity will do the same, likely gone close to dark. The post-
frontal dry advection will keep us from fogging up tonight but
the lack of any real CAA will not curb the heat much tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions expected to remain mostly dry through the period. A
trough aloft will align itself with the east coast with a dry cold
front moving through. A shortwave travels along the trough overnight
Thurs into early Fri with a deepening of offshore low pressure
followed by the quick lifting of the trough to the NE as ridging
starts to build in from the west. The majority of stronger forcing
looks to stay to our north, and the dry air in place also doesn`t
look conducive for much precip during this time. Guidance could come
into further agreement, but for now best chances look to be for SE
NC if at all. Due to the small chances, refrained from increasing
POPs over land at this time. Highs slightly cooler but still in the
80s with lows near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging continues to build in for the early weekend with high
pressure setting up at the surface. The center of the high looks to
push offshore Sun with increasing precip chances due to disturbances
aloft. Daytime instability could mix some diurnal storms in as well.
Coolest conditions at the start of the period with lows Fri night
possibly in the 50s before warming through the weekend. Highs in the
80s with lows in the 60s onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 06Z, the front has finally snaked across the remainder of the
fcst area and is now off the ILM CWA coast. A quick northerly flow
behind the front will fade to 4 kt or less, possibly going calm at
times. This has pushed an influx of lower dewpoints, drier air, in
the low levels across the region.  Guidance indicates FEW/SCT altocu
in the front`s wake for the remainder of the overnight. Have kept
fog at bay for the time being given the drier air. Will see a
possible Cu field in the 5k to 7k foot level, possibly even hier
given some of the upside down V progged soundings. Around the 7H
level decent subsidence inversion to exist today thus no real
vertical development expected of the cu. NW to N winds to increase
to 5 to 10 kt by 13Z and hold thru the day, except a pinned sea
breeze to mainly affect CRE/MYR with winds becoming onshore less
than 10 kt.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Pretty quiet on the marine front with a
boundary stalled just inland to keep the gradient light and the
winds capped at 10kt. Tonight this boundary pushes through
turning flow to the NW, this trend reversing tomorrow and a SW
flow returning. Spectral wave plots show a dominant period of 6
seconds, which should remain the case through the period.

Wednesday Night through Sunday... Sub-SCA conditions. Nly winds
10-15 kts become more variable AOB 10 kts Thursday with the
passage of a dry front. Flow becomes NE through Fri with
building high pressure before becoming SE as the center of the
high moves offshore at the end of the period. Seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...CRM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...MBB/LEW