Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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153 FXUS62 KILM 281948 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 348 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and storm chances decrease tonight as the front pushes offshore. Mostly dry and relatively cooler conditions expected through the end of the week with building high pressure. Unsettled weather return towards early next week as the high moves offshore. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Frontal boundary still appears to be nearly bisecting the area from NW to SW, partially being halted by the advancing seabreeze. Other than the strong/severe cell near Myrtle Grove/CB storms have been hesitant to develop. Most CAMs still show radar fill in across the Cape Fear and to a lesser extent the Grand Strand and based upon the strong instability and low LCL`s this seems plausible. This instability will wane quickly this evening and storm coverage and intensity will do the same, likely gone close to dark. The post- frontal dry advection will keep us from fogging up tonight but the lack of any real CAA will not curb the heat much tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Conditions expected to remain mostly dry through the period. A trough aloft will align itself with the east coast with a dry cold front moving through. A shortwave travels along the trough overnight Thurs into early Fri with a deepening of offshore low pressure followed by the quick lifting of the trough to the NE as ridging starts to build in from the west. The majority of stronger forcing looks to stay to our north, and the dry air in place also doesn`t look conducive for much precip during this time. Guidance could come into further agreement, but for now best chances look to be for SE NC if at all. Due to the small chances, refrained from increasing POPs over land at this time. Highs slightly cooler but still in the 80s with lows near 60. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridging continues to build in for the early weekend with high pressure setting up at the surface. The center of the high looks to push offshore Sun with increasing precip chances due to disturbances aloft. Daytime instability could mix some diurnal storms in as well. Coolest conditions at the start of the period with lows Fri night possibly in the 50s before warming through the weekend. Highs in the 80s with lows in the 60s onwards. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR save for some thunderstorms this afternoon that will favor the coast, and likely the NC coast moreso than SC. ILM will thus be the best coverage and based upon instability parameters have called for strong and variable winds that will require fuel alternates from 19-23Z. Thereafter instability will wane and storms should dissipate. The immediate forecast will also have rather light and variable wind as a front and seabreeze mesh. By daybreak all terminals go NW behind the front and the post- frontal dry advection should preclude fog development. Extended Outlook...VFR through Saturday. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday... Pretty quiet on the marine front with a boundary stalled just inland to keep the gradient light and the winds capped at 10kt. Tonight this boundary pushes through turning flow to the NW, this trend reversing tomorrow and a SW flow returning. Spectral wave plots show a dominant period of 6 seconds, which should remain the case through the period. Wednesday Night through Sunday... Sub-SCA conditions. Nly winds 10-15 kts become more variable AOB 10 kts Thursday with the passage of a dry front. Flow becomes NE through Fri with building high pressure before becoming SE as the center of the high moves offshore at the end of the period. Seas 2-3 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...MBB MARINE...MBB/LEW