Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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502 FXUS62 KILM 290555 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 200 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and storm chances decrease tonight as the front pushes offshore. Mostly dry and relatively cooler conditions expected through the end of the week with building high pressure. Unsettled weather return towards early next week as the high moves offshore. && .UPDATE... Stationary frontal boundary was located just east of the I-95 corridor at 01Z, and some lingering weak surface-based instability is allowing a few small, light showers to persist this evening along and east of the front. The front should finally push offshore after midnight as heights fall across the Mid-Atlantic. Can`t rule out an additional light shower or two popping up along the boundary, but chances will be kept less than 10%. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Frontal boundary still appears to be nearly bisecting the area from NW to SW, partially being halted by the advancing seabreeze. Other than the strong/severe cell near Myrtle Grove/CB storms have been hesitant to develop. Most CAMs still show radar fill in across the Cape Fear and to a lesser extent the Grand Strand and based upon the strong instability and low LCL`s this seems plausible. This instability will wane quickly this evening and storm coverage and intensity will do the same, likely gone close to dark. The post- frontal dry advection will keep us from fogging up tonight but the lack of any real CAA will not curb the heat much tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Conditions expected to remain mostly dry through the period. A trough aloft will align itself with the east coast with a dry cold front moving through. A shortwave travels along the trough overnight Thurs into early Fri with a deepening of offshore low pressure followed by the quick lifting of the trough to the NE as ridging starts to build in from the west. The majority of stronger forcing looks to stay to our north, and the dry air in place also doesn`t look conducive for much precip during this time. Guidance could come into further agreement, but for now best chances look to be for SE NC if at all. Due to the small chances, refrained from increasing POPs over land at this time. Highs slightly cooler but still in the 80s with lows near 60. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridging continues to build in for the early weekend with high pressure setting up at the surface. The center of the high looks to push offshore Sun with increasing precip chances due to disturbances aloft. Daytime instability could mix some diurnal storms in as well. Coolest conditions at the start of the period with lows Fri night possibly in the 50s before warming through the weekend. Highs in the 80s with lows in the 60s onwards. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 06Z, the front has finally snaked across the remainder of the fcst area and is now off the ILM CWA coast. A quick northerly flow behind the front will fade to 4 kt or less, possibly going calm at times. This has pushed an influx of lower dewpoints, drier air, in the low levels across the region. Guidance indicates FEW/SCT altocu in the front`s wake for the remainder of the overnight. Have kept fog at bay for the time being given the drier air. Will see a possible Cu field in the 5k to 7k foot level, possibly even hier given some of the upside down V progged soundings. Around the 7H level decent subsidence inversion to exist today thus no real vertical development expected of the cu. NW to N winds to increase to 5 to 10 kt by 13Z and hold thru the day, except a pinned sea breeze to mainly affect CRE/MYR with winds becoming onshore less than 10 kt. Extended Outlook...VFR through Sun. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...Pretty quiet on the marine front with a boundary stalled just inland to keep the gradient light and the winds capped at 10kt. Tonight this boundary pushes through turning flow to the NW, this trend reversing tomorrow and a SW flow returning. Spectral wave plots show a dominant period of 6 seconds, which should remain the case through the period. Wednesday Night through Sunday... Sub-SCA conditions. Nly winds 10-15 kts become more variable AOB 10 kts Thursday with the passage of a dry front. Flow becomes NE through Fri with building high pressure before becoming SE as the center of the high moves offshore at the end of the period. Seas 2-3 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...CRM NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...CRM MARINE...MBB/LEW