527
FXUS61 KILN 050626
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
226 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A humid and unstable air mass will bring showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday when a cold front is forecast to
cross the area from the west. Drier weather will accompany high
pressure for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shower activity has decreased over all but far southwest CWA
near Lewis County KY, and this is continuing to wane. Lowered
pops overnight and into Wednesday morning. A large set of models
were showing a significant area without precip that lasts
through 15Z and then scattered activity increases ahead of the
main body of storms ahead of the cold front.

Cloud cover and a weak if not persistent southerly flow will
have lows only drop to the upper 60s, which should not be cool
enough to reach dewpoints necessary for fog development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast become widespread on
Wednesday as a cold front pushes in from the west with notable
moisture convergence and lift. There will be a low chance for
severe wind gusts from some of the storms that will be organized
by relatively potent winds aloft, while winds outside of storms
gust over 20 mph. Once the front reaches Eastern Ohio Wednesday
evening, drier air will work in and bring an end to precip
Wednesday night.

Clouds and precip should help to limit high temperatures on
Wednesday to the upper 70s to mid 80s, with lows dropping the
the low and mid 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Thursday morning, an upper low will be centered near Lake
Superior, expected to drift only very slowly east or southeast over
the course of the following day or two. Behind a cold front, there
will be deep-layer westerly flow across the Ohio Valley region,
bringing a significant drop in dewpoints that will last through the
weekend.

With the flow remaining generally progressive over the region
through the extended forecast period, some lower-end chances for
showers and storms look possible for most days. A dry forecast will
be used on Thursday, with a chance of showers and storms in the
northern CWA on Friday, as an area of forcing associated with the
upper low rotates through the region. Slightly greater chances are
in the forecast area-wide for Saturday and Sunday, but low-level
forcing appears weak, so this may be dependent on transient upper
forcing or waves in the flow -- hard to predict at this distance. In
addition, CAPE appears rather limited through this period, owing to
the lack of boundary layer moisture.

The overall pattern will turn a little more active early next week,
as another upper low is forecast to move into the area. Still seeing
a lot of timing and placement differences with this low, but it may
end up leading to greater precipitation chances on Monday and
Tuesday.

Highs will be near normal on Thursday (upper 70s to lower 80s)
before going slightly below normal for the rest of the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected until scattered showers develop over
southwest CWA and CVG/LUK in the morning, spreading northeast
and developing into thunderstorms. A significant set of models
are relatively rain-free over the CWA through 18Z and then begin
ramping up the convection for the rest of the afternoon into the
evening hours. Activity will be most concentrated immediately
ahead of a cold front, and end as the front passes in the latter
part of the evening.

Did not introduce MVFR cigs until after 17-18Z, a little later
towards 19-20Z further northeast at ILN and CMH/LCK. Showers and
thunderstorms will become widespread for a few hours beginning
in the late day and ending later in the evening with the passage
of a cold front.

There`s still a not insignificant amount of uncertainty in how
showers/storms will evolve during the day in the warm sector.
Next round of model data may not begin to capture these storms
appropriately and forecast will rely heavily on how/when
development begins and then move forward from there.

OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs/vsbys may occur in showers and
thunderstorms that are possible Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Franks