Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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700 FXUS64 KJAN 241110 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 610 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Today and Tonight: A 995 mb low pressure system continues to slowly push northeast towards North Dakota this morning. As the sfc low continues to slowly push northward towards North Dakota, a 1012 mb sfc high will develop across the western CONUS before slowly tracking east towards the Central Plains later this afternoon. This sfc high will help push a frontal boundary over KS/MO/AR areas and keep storm chances low across central MS through the afternoon. Went ahead and made a few modifications to the forecast and lowered PoP chances for areas south of the Hwy 82 corridor (5-10%). Areas along and north of Hwy 82 could see some scattered showers and storms around this timeframe. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, a shortwave trough over east Texas interacting with the aforementioned frontal boundary will trigger additional rounds of strong to severe storms along and north of the Hwy 82 corridor. These storms have the potential to spread southeast toward our forecast area later this evening. There are sill some discrepancies regarding the timing of this system, however it appears that the best chance for any severe potential will start around 7PM this evening. The Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms has been extended further east into this evening for areas in far southeast AR, far northeast LA, and northern MS. The Marginal Risk has been extended further south to cover this potential round of severe weather. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, however hail up to golf ball size along with a few tornadoes will also be possible. /CR/ Saturday through Thursday: Saturday morning the cold front will be stalled across northern Mississippi. Surface ridging will be nosing west across the northern Gulf of Mexico while our region will continue to reside on the northern periphery of a fairly stout mid level ridge across old Mexico and the western Gulf. This will help maintain and warm moist airmass over our CWA. Models appear a little faster this run but a shortwave topping the mid level ridge will combine with daytime heating, our moist airmass and the stalled front to develop storms across the northern half of our CWA. Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts will be possible during the day and mainly across our Highway 82 corridor. This activity looks to end by evening as the shortwave shifts east over Alabama. Saturday night and Sunday are currently expected to be dry for our CWA but another shortwave tracking across the Plains Saturday night will help develop a surface low and associated cold front that will be nearing the mid Mississippi valley by noon Sunday. The old stalled front will return north of our CWA during the day as a warm front. Our whole CWA will be in the warm sector Sunday evening when the cold front will be approaching from the northwest. Storms developing along and just ahead of the cold front will have the potential of producing severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts, hail to golf ball size and perhaps a brief tornado or two over our northern zones with lower threats south to Interstate 20 Sunday night. By sunrise Monday morning the potential for severe storms and rain chances will have ended but rain chances will return Monday afternoon and continue into the evening until the cold front clears the CWA and a surface high builds in from the northwest resulting in cooler and drier air back over our CWA. By Tuesday afternoon, dry weather along with cooler temperatures are expected across the region. Ridging surface and aloft look to build over the region by mid week and then dominate through Thursday night. /22/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A mixture of MVFR/VFR ceilings will occur across all sites to start off the TAF period. Current radar scans show scattered showers moving into the Delta. Several northern TAF sites will stay under VFR conditions through 13Z Friday. Starting around 14Z-16Z Friday, ceilings will start to drop to MVFR status west of I- 55 as clouds continue to build from the west. Ceilings will start to improve to VFR status starting around 17Z Friday and will last through 23Z Friday. Showers and storms will begin to move into the area a little after 0Z Saturday Winds will remain southerly generally around 5-10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 72 92 73 / 10 10 10 0 Meridian 91 71 93 72 / 20 20 20 0 Vicksburg 91 71 92 73 / 10 20 10 0 Hattiesburg 92 72 95 72 / 10 10 0 0 Natchez 91 72 92 72 / 10 0 10 0 Greenville 90 72 90 75 / 20 40 30 0 Greenwood 90 71 90 74 / 30 30 30 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CR/22/CR