409
FXUS64 KJAN 040550 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 754 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The anticipated squall line is blowing into far northwestern
portions of our forecast area at the present time - moving into
northeast Louisiana, far southeast Arkansas, and northwestern
portions of Mississippi. Westerly deep-layer wind shear and the
availability of moist unstable air ahead of this line of storms
should see it continue south and east over the next few hours. The
greatest instability is located along the southern flank of the
system, and it`s anticipated that the portions moving south or
southeast will have the greatest damaging wind threat. Some hail
has been observed with isolated storms that popped up ahead of the
line, but generally the wind and heavy rain will be the main
concerns into this evening. Isolated showers and storms continue
elsewhere in the forecast area, but activity remains mostly below
severe thresholds and is diminishing in coverage. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Through Tuesday: The primary focus this evening will be on an MCS
approaching from the northwest. Extrapolation brings this system
through western portions of the area this evening, but it`s still
a bit questionable how a less unstable environment over southern
AR/northern LA might affect the integrity of the system. Assuming
the system maintains its intensity, we are keeping the threat for
severe weather going for the western half of the area, with the
primary concern being for damaging wind gusts. Thereafter, it is
likely the system will dissipate quickly should it reach eastern
MS.

Going into Tuesday, we will be monitoring for the next potential
MCS as active westerlies remain over the region. Much of the
guidance shows such a system may be more likely earlier in the
day, and as has been the case, damaging wind gusts will continue
to be the primary concern.  /EC/

Tuesday night through Sunday night: the extended forecast remains
on track as an unsettled weather pattern continues through the
mid-week with shortwave disturbances and an approaching frontal
boundary moving through the area. Post frontal passage will bring
a brief drying period Friday through Sunday, but then rain
chances will return by Sunday afternoon through the end of the
period as guidance shows the aforementioned frontal boundary
lifting northward from the Gulf coast. Seasonable temperatures
are expected throughout the extended period with highs in the
upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

An active weather pattern is expected to continue Tuesday evening as
upper-level westerly/northwesterly flow pushes shortwave
disturbances from the central Plains through the region. With a
moist airmass, decent instability parameters, and bulk shear in
place, some organized convection will be possible but severe weather
is uncertain. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along/north of HWY 82 and eastern MS before spreading areawide
Wednesday.

A low pressure center near Lake Superior is expected to progress
towards the Atlantic Northeast, pushing an associated cold front
towards the southeast region Thursday. As a result,
shower/thunderstorm chances will continue. We will continue to
monitor any chances for severe weather with this system. Post
frontal passage is expected to bring quiet and slightly lower
dewpoints to the area to begin the weekend as a surface ridge
shift eastward. The aforementioned frontal system is expected to
stall near the Gulf coast and lift northward, resulting in rain
chances returning on Sunday afternoon and remaining until the end
of the period. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A line of SHRA with a few TS is weakening as it pushes east across
the area, however there are some ceiling/visby reductions in +RA
and low stratus. A patchy low stratus deck is expected to increase
through the early morning hours, with IFR/MVFR ceilings at many
sites. Conditions will improve mid to late morning, with VFR
conditions returning by midday in most areas. Another line of TS
is possible from midday into the afternoon with gusts to 50 kt and
1 inch hail possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
outside of storms. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  73  89  71 /  40  20  50  40
Meridian      89  71  91  71 /  60  30  40  50
Vicksburg     89  73  89  71 /  40  20  50  30
Hattiesburg   91  73  92  73 /  40  20  30  40
Natchez       89  73  89  71 /  40  20  40  30
Greenville    88  73  87  72 /  40  20  60  20
Greenwood     88  73  87  71 /  50  30  70  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/EC/SW/DL