227
FXUS64 KJAN 021502 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1002 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

GOES-16 and local radars are showing showers and thunderstorms near
the Pine Belt and southwestern portion of the area. As a shortwave
disturbance moves across the region, showers/thunderstorms will be
possible east of I-55 and along/south of I-20. Some storms could be
strong but severe weather is not anticipated.
Elsewhere, dry and quiet conditions are expected. Rain chances are
expected to start diminishing late afternoon. High temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 80s. /SW/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Today and Tonight...

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to start off this morning as
short term guidance continue to show a shortwave disturbance moving
towards the east. A strong storm or two could be possible around
this timeframe (especially across the Pine Belt), but severe weather
is not anticipated. Current radar scans show a few lingering showers
well south of our forecast area, with no heavy downpours expected.
Because of this, we went ahead and removed the flash flooding
graphic for today. As the shortwave progress through the area, rain
chances will start to diminish later this afternoon into the evening
with afternoon highs peaking into the upper 80s. Heading into
tonight, the shortwave disturbance will continue to track east out
of our CWA and towards Alabama. This will lead to quiet conditions
across central MS as clouds begin to clear mainly for areas along
and north of the I-20 corridor. HREF guidance is hinting at some fog
potential along and southeast of the Natchez Trace later in the
overnight period. If trends continue to increase, a fog graphic will
be introduced in our HWO. Expect overnight lows to drop into the
upper 60s and low 70s. /CR/

Next week through early next weekend (Monday-Saturday)...

Through midweek (Monday-Wednesday): Active convective pattern will
persist through midweek. Quasi zonal pattern will continue across
majority of areas west of the MS River corridor, with the Gulf Coast
region on the western periphery of departing trough axis moving
across the Mid Atlantic to southeast states. This will keep west-
northwesterly flow aloft & perturbed deep flow rounding shortwave
ridging off to the southwest. With continued moist ascent & PWs near
in excess of an inch & a half, there will be continued isolated to
scattered rain & storm chances, with more isolated early week. With
mean deep bulk shear only to around 20-30kts, not expecting much in
the way of organized severe potential but vertical totals in the 25-
27 deg range & 6-7 deg C lapse rates could support some strong to
isolated severe storms at most. There are indications a decaying MCS
could move in out of the Plains to ArkLaTex into Monday aftn-evening
across the Delta. Decided to advertise the "Marginal" across the
extreme northwest Delta for Monday. As ridging persists over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, successive shortwaves are progged to
move across the Gulf Coast region, with persistent rain & storm
chances. Expect chances to migrate northeastward, with more isolated
chances further southwest. Thermal profiles are getting more
anomalous, with 500 temps in the 10th-25th percentile range, near
the -10C to -12C range by midweek, with steepening mid-level lapse
rates around 7.5-8.5 deg C & vertical totals in the 29-32 degree C
range, especially across southwestern half of the area, some severe
storms can`t be ruled out each day, especially Wednesday where MCS
activity is possible. Temperatures will become seasonably warm, with
highs in low 90s by midweek, with some increased heat stress/heat
indices into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Lows will be
seasonably warm in the low 70s east of I-55 to low-mid 70s along &
northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor.

Late week-early next weekend (Thursday-Saturday): Ridging is progged
to amplify over the Four Corners to West TX by late week, with more
significant northwesterly flow moving across the northern Plains-Mid
West-Great Lakes to as far as the Mid South to northern portions of
the Gulf Coast-Appalachians regions. This is in response to a
significant cold core low/frontal system diving across southern
Canada to south of the Hudson Bay area. This will drag an organized
frontal system down across the CONUS into the Gulf Coast region by
late week. Expect additional scattered rain & storm chances, with a
little stronger deep flow around the area. Additional isolated
strong-severe storms are possible, with low end CSU probs continuing
to indicate that potential. No areas are outlooked in the HWO for
this week. With frontal system progged to move into the area, recent
trends have slowed the decreased heat & humidity into late weekend.
Seasonable temperatures in the low 90s & lows in the upper 60s-low
70s late week to mid-upper 60s by late week into late next weekend.
/DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions will occur across central MS to
start off the period. Between 12Z-14Z, MEI will drop to IFR ceilings
due to low stratus. Elsewhere, a few southern sites will see MVFR
ceilings between 14Z-16Z Sunday. Chances for additional scattered
SHRA or TSRA will start to increase a little after 15Z Sunday,
especially for areas along and south of Interstate 20. Showers will
continue through 22Z Sunday before clearing by 23Z Sunday with VFR
conditions prevailing. VFR conditions will prevail through 05Z
Monday with patchy fog development around 06Z Monday, mainly for
areas along and southeast of the Natchez Trace. This will lead to a
mixture of MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings through 14Z Monday morning.
Adjustments may be necessary as conditions start to worsen
around this timeframe. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  69  89  71 /  30  10  20  10
Meridian      87  68  89  70 /  40  10  20  10
Vicksburg     87  70  89  73 /  20   0  20  10
Hattiesburg   84  69  89  71 /  60  20  20  10
Natchez       86  69  88  71 /  40  10  20  10
Greenville    88  72  89  74 /  10   0  20  20
Greenwood     88  70  90  73 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/DC/CR