119
FXUS64 KJAN 020941
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
441 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Today and Tonight...

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to start off this morning as
short term guidance continue to show a shortwave disturbance moving
towards the east. A strong storm or two could be possible around
this timeframe (especially across the Pine Belt), but severe weather
is not anticipated. Current radar scans show a few lingering showers
well south of our forecast area, with no heavy downpours expected.
Because of this, we went ahead and removed the flash flooding
graphic for today. As the shortwave progress through the area, rain
chances will start to diminish later this afternoon into the evening
with afternoon highs peaking into the upper 80s. Heading into
tonight, the shortwave disturbance will continue to track east out
of our CWA and towards Alabama. This will lead to quiet conditions
across central MS as clouds begin to clear mainly for areas along
and north of the I-20 corridor. HREF guidance is hinting at some fog
potential along and southeast of the Natchez Trace later in the
overnight period. If trends continue to increase, a fog graphic will
be introduced in our HWO. Expect overnight lows to drop into the
upper 60s and low 70s. /CR/

Next week through early next weekend (Monday-Saturday)...

Through midweek (Monday-Wednesday): Active convective pattern will
persist through midweek. Quasi zonal pattern will continue across
majority of areas west of the MS River corridor, with the Gulf Coast
region on the western periphery of departing trough axis moving
across the Mid Atlantic to southeast states. This will keep west-
northwesterly flow aloft & perturbed deep flow rounding shortwave
ridging off to the southwest. With continued moist ascent & PWs near
in excess of an inch & a half, there will be continued isolated to
scattered rain & storm chances, with more isolated early week. With
mean deep bulk shear only to around 20-30kts, not expecting much in
the way of organized severe potential but vertical totals in the 25-
27 deg range & 6-7 deg C lapse rates could support some strong to
isolated severe storms at most. There are indications a decaying MCS
could move in out of the Plains to ArkLaTex into Monday aftn-evening
across the Delta. Decided to advertise the "Marginal" across the
extreme northwest Delta for Monday. As ridging persists over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, successive shortwaves are progged to
move across the Gulf Coast region, with persistent rain & storm
chances. Expect chances to migrate northeastward, with more isolated
chances further southwest. Thermal profiles are getting more
anomalous, with 500 temps in the 10th-25th percentile range, near
the -10C to -12C range by midweek, with steepening mid-level lapse
rates around 7.5-8.5 deg C & vertical totals in the 29-32 degree C
range, especially across southwestern half of the area, some severe
storms can`t be ruled out each day, especially Wednesday where MCS
activity is possible. Temperatures will become seasonably warm, with
highs in low 90s by midweek, with some increased heat stress/heat
indices into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Lows will be
seasonably warm in the low 70s east of I-55 to low-mid 70s along &
northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor.

Late week-early next weekend (Thursday-Saturday): Ridging is progged
to amplify over the Four Corners to West TX by late week, with more
significant northwesterly flow moving across the northern Plains-Mid
West-Great Lakes to as far as the Mid South to northern portions of
the Gulf Coast-Appalachians regions. This is in response to a
significant cold core low/frontal system diving across southern
Canada to south of the Hudson Bay area. This will drag an organized
frontal system down across the CONUS into the Gulf Coast region by
late week. Expect additional scattered rain & storm chances, with a
little stronger deep flow around the area. Additional isolated
strong-severe storms are possible, with low end CSU probs continuing
to indicate that potential. No areas are outlooked in the HWO for
this week. With frontal system progged to move into the area, recent
trends have slowed the decreased heat & humidity into late weekend.
Seasonable temperatures in the low 90s & lows in the upper 60s-low
70s late week to mid-upper 60s by late week into late next weekend.
/DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Local radar scans currently show a line of scattered showers moving
to the east across HEZ through around 06Z-08Z. Confidence remains
too low at other TAF sites to introduce this TAF cycle at this time.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions will across other sites to start off the
TAF period. VFR conditions will continue through 08Z Sunday before
dropping to MVFR status across MEI around 09Z Sunday. Between 10Z-
15Z, MEI will start to drop to IFR ceilings. A couple of southern
sites (mainly PIB, HBG,& HEZ) will see ceilings drop to IFR/LIFR as
scattered showers continue to propagate east during this timeframe.
Adjustments will be necessary as conditions start to around this
timeframe. Chances for additional scattered SHRA or TSRA will start
to increase a little after 15Z Sunday, especially for areas along
and south of Interstate 20. Showers will continue through 23Z Sunday
before clearing by 00Z Monday with VFR conditions prevailing. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  69  89  71 /  30  10  20  10
Meridian      87  68  89  70 /  40  10  20  10
Vicksburg     87  70  89  73 /  20   0  20  10
Hattiesburg   84  69  89  71 /  50  20  20  10
Natchez       86  69  88  71 /  30  10  20  10
Greenville    88  72  89  74 /  10   0  20  20
Greenwood     88  70  90  73 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/DC/CR