089
FXUS64 KJAN 260545 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1245 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

With the loss of daytime heating, the last of the evening`s
showers and thunderstorms finally faded from the radar scope at
10:30 this evening. The POPs and severe risk have been cleared
from the forecast through the rest of tonight. Some patchy fog is
possible especially in the Pine Belt with increased humidity.
/NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Through Sunday:

Lingering clouds from earlier convection resulted in a
differential heating boundary from the upper Delta through east MS
and into central AL this afternoon. This boundary may now serve
as a focus for scattered diurnal convection to develop over the
next few hours. Given moderate to strong instability and
marginally strong deep shear, a few of these storms could become
severe. Activity should taper off both in terms of intensity and
coverage shortly after sunset as we lose the fuel from daytime
heating. Damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be
the main concerns with the strongest storms.

Otherwise, it will be mostly dry overnight and through most of the
daytime Sunday as shortwave ridging briefly builds across the area.
In the continuing low level southerly flow, a resurgence of low
clouds is possible especially across south MS predawn Sunday
morning, lifting and diminishing through the day. Temperatures will
remain seasonably warm into Sunday. /DL/

Sunday night through Monday night:

An organized convective system may move across much of the
forecast area from Sunday night into Memorial Day morning bringing
the threat for damaging straight- line winds and hail. A
shortwave trough is forecast by all guidance to bring significant
height falls into the Lower MS Valley region late Sunday, and with
the environment features steep lapse rates and strong mid/upper
level flow, intense deep convection is likely to initiate and
eventually organize into an MCS with a substantial cold pool north
of the Hwy 82 corridor by evening given downdraft CAPE values up
to 1500 j/kg.

While ambient low level shear forecasts would support greater
convective wind potential with an eastward moving system, the
magnitude of the cold pool and airmass density change will likely
promote strong to severe wind gusts as the boundary propagates
southward through the night. Confidence is low concerning the
southward extent of the significant wind threat as we go into
Memorial Day morning, and depending on this, we will know more
about any additional storm threats for late afternoon/evening
across mainly southern portions of the area. Most guidance do not
appear to allow for sufficient recovery for late day storms in our
area as it stands, but all interests should monitor future
updates.

Tuesday through Friday night: A drier airmass will be one of
bigger stories for the mid/late week as a deep longwave trough
over much of the eastern CONUS and influences as our region.
Convective rainfall chances will continue to some extent however
as the boundary doesn`t ever move too far away. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions wl prevail until after 10Z when MVFR/IFR cigs wl
develop cntrl and south and prevail until after 15Z before
improving to VFR. A gusty south wind of 20-24kts wl develop by 15Z
and continue through the aftn before subsiding after 00Z Mon. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  92  68  90 /  30  20  20  10
Meridian      71  93  67  92 /  20  30  20  10
Vicksburg     73  93  68  91 /  30  20  20  10
Hattiesburg   74  94  70  93 /  10  30  20  10
Natchez       72  93  68  92 /  20  10  10  10
Greenville    74  91  68  90 /  60  10  10   0
Greenwood     72  91  66  91 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/DL/EC/22