586
FXUS63 KLBF 021935
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
235 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for a high impact severe event this afternoon
  through this evening with damaging winds at or above 75mph and
  large to very large hail in excess of 2" diameter across
  central and western Nebraska. A brief tornado or two will also
  be possible.

- Low confidence but potential for a corridor of significant
  damage from wind driven hail this evening across western
  Nebraska, as initial supercells begin to grow upscale into a
  line.

- Thunderstorm chances persist into Monday and Tuesday, though
  the threat for severe weather appears low at this time, then
  quiet weather through midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Another round of overnight convection has moved off to our east, though
visible satellite imagery clearly shows lingering outflow boundaries
with more stable air lingering across central and western
Nebraska from roughly Imperial up through O`Neill. Further to
the west with little cloud cover diurnal heating has been in
full swing with SBCAPE values already approaching 4000J/kg in
the western sandhills. Anticipate destabilization will continue
in this narrow corridor with mesoscale guidance indicating CAPE
values in excess of 4000J/kg by late this afternoon pushing up
form the south. Bufkit model soundings show this CAPE to be
quite stout offering good support for vigorous updrafts, though
some mid level warming will present some CINH to be overcome
before initiation of deep convection. Expect the approaching
front will offer the necessary forcing to overcome the CINH and
trigger development of thunderstorms as it enters the region
from the west late this afternoon and moves across the region
this evening and exits off to the east before Midnight. Deep
layer shear ahead of the front is evident with 0-6km bulk shear
at or above 40kt and given the instability anticipate organized
storms to initiate and rapidly grow upscale with potential for
large to very large hail. Lapse rates are steep form the
boundary layer up through mid and upper levels with an
inverted-v also noted in model soundings, and given forecast
DCAPE values around 1500J/kg expect a very efficient wind
environment to facilitate strong, damaging wind gusts. After
discrete cells initiate, expect a shallow angle between the mean
wind field and the approaching front will allow for clustering
of storms and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat quick
transition to a linear MCS or one or more bowing segments that
will amplify outflow with potential for with gusts at or above
75mph. The greatest uncertainty in potential for severe weather
appears to be further to the northeast generally in the bounded
area both east of Hwy 83 and north of Hwy 91 where the lingering
effects from stable outflow may dampen convection. The severe
threat is expected to be progressive and exit the region to the
east before Midnight with quiet conditions for the overnight.

A sharp short wave will then dig a trof into the upper midwest and push
another cold front into the region late Monday into Monday night with
another round of showers and thunderstorms that will linger into
Tuesday morning. With the best instability off to our east expect
potential for severe storms will be limited but any storms east of Hwy
83 will bear monitoring closely.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

By Tuesday night the front will be pushing off to the east with high
pressure surface and aloft building over the region. This will keep
quiet weather with above normal temperatures across central and
western Nebraska through midweek. Thereafter ensemble guidance
is in good agreement in continuing to build the ridge over the
western US gradually developing a westward lean to the ridge
axis over time. while this will keep us under northwest flow
aloft the flow will become more active with short waves sliding
down the face of the ridge. At the surface, high pressure moves
to our east and sets up southerly return flow of moisture with
90th percentile precipitable water values just off to our west.
Northwest flow aloft with moist southerly flow below will set
the stage for a return to more active weather by the end of the
week and heading into the weekend. While any severe threat
remains undefined, expect the potential for strong storms will
be increasing through next weekend due to the favorable shear
profiles and returning low level moisture. The gradual westward
shift to the upper ridge will also allow for a slight cooling
trend to temperatures closer to seasonal normals next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The main aviation concern today will be the chance for
thunderstorms, late this afternoon and evening. It is
anticipated that a line of thunderstorms will form and move
across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska into north central
and central Nebraska. This could impact both forecast terminals,
KVTN and KLBF, with the greatest chance of storms moving
through the early evening hours for the forecast terminals.
MVFR or lower conditions will be possible as thunderstorms
impact the terminals, with large hail, strong wind gust of 50kts
or more and heavy rainfall.

For this afternoon winds will remain breezy out of the south
around 10 to 15 kts with gust of 20 kts or more. Wind winds
becoming light and variable overnight. VFR conditions are
expected this afternoon and for most of the forecast period with
the exception of thunderstorm impacts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...Gomez