719
FXUS64 KLIX 040458
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1158 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Like the previous night watching the MCS to our northwest closely.
Once again it appears that the remnants of the MCS should get into
the northwestern portions of the CWA and unlike previous nights
the CAMs actually are trying to hold onto it and just get it in
here before it completely dissipates. Like last night the belief
is that the MCS should maintain itself through northwest LA and
then after it gets on the other side of the theta e ridge and the
instability max there should be slow but steady weakening
approaching southwest MS just before midnight. This is about the
same thing as last night maybe an hour earlier. Not expecting
anything strong severe from this but likely a wetting rain for the
same locations that got it between 5z and 9z last night. /CAB/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Upper pattern is a bit west-northwesterly across the area with a
shortwave to the northwest across Kansas, and a stronger trough
across the Pacific Northwest. Isolated precipitation tried to
develop around 18z, but with low level flow from the south and
upper flow from the northwest, it appears that shear has stopped
most or all of the updrafts from becoming deep up to this point.
Temperatures at 3 PM CDT were generally in the upper 80s with dew
points in the lower and middle 70s.

Main concerns over the next 36 hours will be the potential for
mesoscale convective systems to the northwest of the area to
travel southeastward and reach the area. One such area is
currently over Kansas. Most guidance dissipates this complex
during the evening, but the runs of the HRRR since 12z bring it
pretty close to the CWA before dissipating it around midnight.
While we currently aren`t carrying precipitation mention across
southwest Mississippi late this evening, threat is not zero.

A somewhat more significant threat appears to be possibly shaping
up for the afternoon hours tomorrow, as a second complex is
forecast to develop over Oklahoma after midnight tonight and
follow much of the same track southeastward. While most guidance
doesn`t indicate this system reaching the area tomorrow, the
recent runs of the HRRR have it reaching the area around midday
tomorrow, and this does have the support of the ECMWF operational
model. Forecast soundings from the GFS do show potential for the
cap to be broken with CAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg, low level
lapse rates of 7.5 to 8C/km and DCAPE values exceeding 1300 across
northern portions of the area. SPC on their midday Day 2 update
spread the Marginal Risk into our area, and can`t really discount
it. So, we will continue carrying thunderstorm chances for
tomorrow across the area, although the GFS/NAM solutions argue
dry. The HRRR solution has it through the CWA by about 02z
Wednesday, but tends to be a bit slow, especially if it becomes
cold pool dominant, so a dry forecast for Tuesday night isn`t
totally unreasonable.

Don`t see much need to diverge much from NBM temperature numbers,
although might nudge overnight lows up a bit based on
verification.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

As has been the case for the last week or more, ridging to the
west of the local area and troughing to the east, global models
have struggled to agree. Timing of shortwaves and/or convective
complexes lead to a low confidence in details. The operational
ECMWF is the wetter solution for Wednesday and Thursday, then
dries out for the weekend. The operational GFS is comparatively
dry for Wednesday and Thursday, then becomes the wetter model for
the weekend. The current NBM deterministic numbers trend toward
the ECMWF solution, but it is not a high confidence forecast at
this time.

Until a definitive trend regarding precipitation chances becomes
apparent, can`t see making large changes in the NBM deterministic
temperature forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

All terminals are in VFR status still but we could see a few drop
into MVFR status in the next hour or so as a line of weakening
convection is moving in from the northwest. Main areas to watch
are MCB and BTR outside of convection low clouds could impact
terminals between 9 and 13z. Tomorrow is uncertain as convection
scattered convection could impact the area again or another MCS
may try to move into the area out of the northwest during the late
afternoon hours. CAMs have been all over the board with the and
looking back to the northwest there is convection trying to refire
across central Ok and southeast towards Texarkana. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Right now all terminals are in VFR status and likely to remain
that way through the rest of the evening. After 5z convection
likely begins to move in from the northwest with MCB and BTR again
the most likely terminals to see minor impacts. Convection is
expected to be weakening and only anticipating cigs and vsbys to
drop into MVFR status from the convection.

Elsewhere low clouds will be a possibility again early in the
morning. Most sites should only drop into MVFR status with cigs
between 1500-2500 ft but one or two terminals could see cigs drop
below 1k ft for a period or two. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Main marine concern over the next few days is likely to be the
potential for thunderstorms, with one such period possible
tomorrow afternoon. Confidence in timing is fairly low. There
could be brief periods where Small Craft Exercise Caution
headlines are necessary. One would be around sunrise tomorrow over
the western waters. That one is rather borderline, so we`ll let
the evening shift take a look at that one before a final decision.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  89  71  90 /  80  40   0  40
BTR  76  93  76  94 /  30  30   0  30
ASD  75  91  75  93 /  10  40   0  30
MSY  77  90  77  92 /  10  30   0  30
GPT  77  88  77  89 /  20  40  10  30
PQL  74  90  75  91 /  20  30   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...RW