Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
758 FXUS63 KLSX 300345 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1045 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather is expected through tomorrow with at or just below normal temperatures. Temperatures will climb back above normal next week. - Showers will be likely along with a few thunderstorms from Friday into Saturday. There will be additional chances for showers and thunderstorms into the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The latest water vapor analysis is showing is showing a upper ridge over the Plains which the HREF shows moving across the Midwest on Thursday. This will bring dry weather to the region until at least late Thursday night when there will be an increase in some low level moisture convergence over central and northeast Missouri that could bring some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, the front still remains south of the area with a surface high centered over Hudson Bay and a surface ridge nosing down into eastern Missouri. The HREF is showing the ridge moving east of the area tonight causing the winds to turn out of the east and then southeast tomorrow and tomorrow night. Lows tonight will be similar to this morning`s and highs tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today`s. Britt && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 There is still reasonable agreement between the deterministic models that a shortwave trough will still move across Missouri and Illinois on Friday night into early Saturday. The same models have varying tracks of the attendant surface low, but still show a swath of QPF moving across the CWA. Then the model solutions begin to vary late weekend into early next week as the individual models are showing different timing and strength with the subsequent troughs. The LREF does show a trough moving through the area early in the weekend followed by quasi-zonal flow setting up over the Midwest. It has 40- 70% PoPs on Friday night and Saturday, but then decreases the rest of the period, particularly late in the weekend when it appears that a shortwave ridge may be moving through the area. By early next week, the NBM/LREF has spread out 30-60% PoPs when the individual ensemble members has additional shortwaves moving across the area. The potential for organized severe weather continues to look low. Temperatures are still expected to climb above normal early next week as the LREF is showing 850mb temperatures climbing from around 10C on Friday to near 20C early-mid next week with low level flow turning out of the south to southwest. Confidence in the warm up continues to be high as the NBM IQR is around 5 degrees or less. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR flight conditions expected through the forecast period. Otherwise, light and variable winds will become southeasterly by mid morning on Thursday with scattered diurnal cu developing. Byrd && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX