883
FXUS62 KMFL 051724
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
124 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The surface ridge will continue to gradually lose its strength
today, but will remain enough of a factor to keep a general
southeasterly wind regime in the low levels and at the surface.
Lingering subsidence and mid-level drier air will inhibit the
overall convective potential, particularly from a large scale
perspective. Nevertheless, the gulf and sea breezes will act as
sources of lift through this evening, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing. Highest PoPs will be towards the
interior and west coast, around 40-50% as an easterly-
southeasterly regime favors those areas. The main hazards with any
storms will be locally heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent
lightning. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s
near the coasts and mid to upper 90s over the interior sections,
with peak heat indices in the low triple digits.

Heading into Thursday, large scale troughing will push into the
eastern U.S., with a mid-level shortwave propagating along the
southern edge of it over central and southern Florida. This
shortwave will enhance ascent across the area, in addition to the
daily afternoon sea and gulf breezes, resulting in showers and
storms being more widespread. With steepening mid-level lapse
rates and lower freezing levels, there will be the potential for
some storms to become strong to severe with large hail, primarily
across the Lake Okeechobee and Palm Beach County areas. Storms
will also be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rain. High temperatures will see a slight uptick with
winds turning more southerly, allowing a vast majority of
locations to reach the low to mid 90s. Peak heat index values will
approach advisory criteria, reaching 103-108 across much of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

As the weekend approaches, the southern edge of the synoptic
scale trough axis will swing through the Florida Peninsula. In
response to this, the low level wind regime will shift
westerly/southwesterly and reverse the areas favored for
precipitation to the east coast metro and eastern interior areas
as the east coast sea breeze will not be able to penetrate inland
and will stall over the east coast metro. Thus, expect the brunt
of showers and thunderstorms that form in the South Florida region
to be observed over the east coast metro. The main energy from
this trough will depart the region by Sunday morning, which then
allows subtropical high pressure over the Atlantic to expand back
over South Florida again. In addition, drier air will filter into
the area, helping to further minimize convective potential. That
said, daily isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be
possible as a result of mesoscale boundaries.

For early next week, guidance starts to vary more drastically as
some guidance highlights potential for a tropical wave to impact
the area and other guidance shows it avoiding the area. If this
feature continues to show signs of materializing in future
guidance and could pose threats to our region, then potential
impacts will be described. However, conditions are highly
uncertain at this time and thus this needs to be taken with a
grain of salt for now.

Temperatures are expected to increase in the weekend timeframe
with mid to upper 90s expected for most areas, except likely in
the low 90s for the west coast. Some spots in the interior have
the potential to hit triple digits. Furthermore, heat indices will
climb into the mid 100s for most areas under southwest flow, and
thus there will be potential for heat advisories.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the 18Z TAF period,
with VCSH possibly resulting in brief sub-VFR cigs/vis for the
Atlantic sites this afternoon. APF has better chances at shower
and thunderstorm activity. ESE winds to around 10kt this
afternoon, then light and variable later in the evening. Only
exception will be APF where a westerly flow develops with
afternoon Gulf breezes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Benign conditions will be in place for the rest of the week with
seas at 2 feet or less and east-southeast winds around 5 to 10 kts.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day,
and may create locally hazardous winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  92  79  92 /  20  50  20  60
West Kendall     76  94  76  95 /  20  50  20  60
Opa-Locka        79  94  79  95 /  20  40  20  60
Homestead        78  91  77  92 /  20  40  20  60
Fort Lauderdale  79  91  79  92 /  20  40  20  70
N Ft Lauderdale  79  92  79  92 /  20  40  20  70
Pembroke Pines   79  95  79  96 /  20  40  20  60
West Palm Beach  77  93  76  94 /  10  40  30  60
Boca Raton       78  93  78  94 /  10  40  20  70
Naples           78  93  79  92 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Culver