971
FXUS62 KMHX 191932
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
332 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure ridging builds in from the north keeping much of
the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal
system late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...High pressure ridging extends S`wards
into the Carolinas in the wake of a S`ward moving cold front
with an area of low pressure well off the coast to the east and
a second mid level low currently moving south across portions of
SE Georgia this afternoon. Both lows and cold front should
continue to pull away from ENC this evening as high pressure
ridging continues to build S`wards keeping the area dry outside
of a stray shower or two along the Crystal Coast. Given the
close proximity of the two lows and the front widespread
cloudcover and steady NE winds remain across the FA. As a
result, highs have only gotten into the 60s to low 70s today
across the region bringing a rather brisk end to the weekend.

As we get into tonight, upper level trough is forecast to push
further offshore while upper ridging builds in from the west. At the
same time associated mid level shortwaves continue to pull further
away from the region. This will allow high pressure ridging to
further entrench itself across the Carolinas tonight resulting
in some dry air finally beginning to overspread the area. Some
reduction in cloud cover is forecast especially across the
Coastal Plain early this evening with portions of our western
CWA potentially seeing partly to mo clear skies for a brief
period of time tonight. However as we near daybreak continued
NE`rly flow should allow for low stratus to once again
overspread much if not all of ENC by daybreak. There remains
some uncertainty with how far inland any low stratus gets but
current thinking is anywhere along and east of Hwy 17 has the
best chance for widespread low clouds with lower chances the
further west you get. However, if there is a lack of cloud cover
across the western portions of the CWA there then would be a
low end threat for some patchy fog. Given the uncertainty in the
cloud cover tonight elected not to include fog in the forecast
for now but will have to monitor trends as the evening
progresses. Lows get into the mid to upper 50s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...High pressure continues to nose into ENC,
while low pressure spins well off the Mid Atlantic coast.
Stratus will plague Eastern NC advecting in from the Atlantic on
continued NE`rly flow, but we will remain dry on Mon.
Widespread cloudcover will keep temps cooler than climo once
again as highs range from the mid 60s OBX to the low/mid 70s
inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure builds in from the north for
the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from
the west toward the latter half of the week.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid-
Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday,
along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in
the 75-80 degree range on Tue, then by Wed and Thu, rise
through the 80s and back above climo. In fact, some areas may
flirt with 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 50s to
start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday through Sunday...Next potential weather maker in the
form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive
by week`s end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region
with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of
disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30`s% at best.
Followed closer to climo, and kept thunder mainly in the
afternoon to early evening time periods, with very small to nil
shower chances overnight and morning periods.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/...
As of 115 PM Sunday.. Much of ENC is under MVFR ceilings as of
this update with the OBX being the lone holdout under IFR
ceilings as expected. Steady NE`rly winds at 10-15 kts with
gusts up around 15-20 kts and MVFR ceilings are forecast to
continue through much of the afternoon across ENC with VFR
conditions and light winds finally returning to the Coastal
Plain by late afternoon with MVFR ceilings returning to the OBX
during this timeframe.

As we get into tonight the forecast will become slightly more
complicated. Current thinking is that with light NE`rly flow
continuing to pump in ample low level moisture from the
Atlantic into the FA,this moisture will become trapped
underneath a low level inversion allowing ceilings once again
lower from NE to SW down to IFR/MVFR levels. How far inland this
low stratus gets is still up for debate but highest confidence
in low ceilings remain across the OBX with lower confidence as
we go further south and west across ENC. In addition to this if
the Coastal Plain is less cloudy than currently forecast than
there will be a chance for some patchy fog at times mainly after
06Z tonight. Given the lack of confidence in getting fog, left
this out of the TAFs for now and capped ceilings at MVFR with a
SCT IFR deck at all the terminals given uncertainty with
ceilings. Will need to monitor trends in future updates to see
how things go tonight. By Mon morning any low ceilings and
lowered vis will quickly lift allowing for VFR conditions
across much of the area outside the OBX by mid morning at the
latest.

LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through
mid to late week. Exception may be on Monday, when MVFR or
lower stratus possible in the morning hours, and again Mon
night, as nerly flow cont.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 330PM Sunday... Winds have been slightly lower than
initially forecast today in the wake of a cold front to the
south and low pressure well to the east as latest obs show
widespread NE`rly winds at 10-20 kts with gusts up near 25-30
kts. Strongest winds are noted across the larger inland sounds
and central coastal waters while 4-6 ft seas are noted along the
coastal waters this afternoon. Given the slightly lighter winds
have elected to cancel the SCA for the Neuse River on this
update while shortening the timeframe for the northern and
southern coastal waters SCA`s that are out. Otherwise general
trend is for NE winds to briefly lighten up this evening down to
10-15 kts with gusts up around 20-25 kts while seas along the
coastal waters remain around 4- 6 ft. As we get into Monday
continued NE`rly flow at 10-20 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts
will be possible as ridging becomes entrenched across the Mid-
Atlantic and low pressure remains quasi stationary well out to
the east. Strongest winds found along our coastal waters while
seas remain around 4-6 ft.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Sun...SCA cond linger into Monday for Pamlico Sound
and the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as gusty ne winds
keep seas elevated above 6 ft. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft
Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in and long
fetch nerly winds diminish.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     150-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for
     AMZ152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/RCF