927
FXUS63 KMKX 251514
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1014 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of widespread showers and storms on Sunday with
  at least a small potential for severe thunderstorms.

- Cannot rule out a strong to severe storms Sunday but is very
  conditional right now.

- Chance for showers/storms Monday/Tuesday but quieter weather
  midweek

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1015 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The forecast remains on track, with daytime highs in the mid 70s
expected inland today. As the core of the high pressure system
moves over Lake Michigan this afternoon, conditions will become
increasingly favorable for a lake breeze circulation, which
model guidance suggests will overtake all lakeshore counties in
the late afternoon, and might move as far inland as West Bend,
Waukesha, and Burlington before dissipating (per the WRF-ARW).
The winds from it will only be southeast at 5 to 15 mph, hence
the only difference this would make in the forecast is a
slightly faster than usual cool-down (to the 60s) in the late
afternoon hours. Overnight low temps are on track for the low
50s tonight (all areas).

Will be closely monitoring tomorrow`s warm front positioning /
timing once model guidance finishes loading, and will reanalyze
the severe threat accordingly with the afternoon AFD issuance.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 340 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Today through Sunday:

Today will be on the quiet side as higher pressure develops
tonight and tracks into the southern Great Lakes region behind
the exiting system. In addition Saturday will feature a brief
period of weak ridging. This will largely be responsible for
keeping the region dry today through tonight.

However into Sunday morning we will see increasing chances
(80-90%) for showers and storms as a strong shortwave sweeps
through the area. This system will also be heavily influenced by
40-60kt LLJ sliding through the CWA during the day. The severe
potential Sunday afternoon exists primarily due to the LLJ and
the strong 0-3km helicity and deep layer shear associated with
it.

While some storms could be expected into the early afternoon
the environment may be heavily influenced based on how far north
the warm front. While models have seemingly slowed a bit from
yesterday the highly conditional nature of severe storms
remains as the warm appears unlikely to stretch far enough
north with any severe potential being limited to the far
southern portions of the CWA (near the WI/IL border), and likely
elevated.

However much of the day will likely (80-90%) be fairly wet for
much of the CWA as the low pushes through the region. Around
and inch of rain could be expected from this system
Sunday/Sunday night. Also expect breezy southeast winds Sunday
with mixing enough to grab some of those breezier winds aloft.

It should be mentioned that Sunday may feature waves approaching
4 feet, which would cause some Beach Hazards concerns but due to
uncertainty we are holding off for now.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 340 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Sunday night through Friday:

The deepening surface low will gradually push northwest into
the northern Great Lakes region and into Ontario. Monday may
feature some additional precip chances (30-40%) due to some
additional shortwave activity in the region along with some
moisture. Originally the low pushing off may have had some
impact of precip chance Sunday night into early Monday but that
has since backed off with most of the chances related to the
next shortwave in the afternoon. Best chances for precip are
focused further west. This will be somewhat diurnal as there
should be some storms Monday given some weak instability
associated with the shortwave. Stronger storms not expected at
this time due to lack of shear.

Tuesday will also feature continued chances (30-40%) for
showers and storms, though weak, due largely to the upper trough
digging through the region. While there remains some
uncertainty with this upper trough and its progression from
central Canada into the western Great Lakes region the trend
points toward better chances for a day similar to Monday with
diurnal convective influence but with less certainty in regards
to location of where we should see shower/storms and how
widespread it will be.

By midweek it appears for at least a short period we will
finally return to drier conditions with higher pressure sliding
in ahead of ridging aloft. Friday looks a bit more uncertain but
most models suggest a drier solution with any precip concerns
holding off until Saturday.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1015 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Clear skies and VFR conditions, with high clouds gradually
moving in later today. Lakeshore county airports should expect
a lake breeze at some point in the mid to late afternoon hours
today (reflected in TAFs). Speeds for today`s lake breeze are
generally expected to be only 5 to 10 kts (though some gusts to
18 kts may occur), the main impact is a sudden wind shift from
variable or west winds to steady southeasterlies. KUES may
require a lake breeze in the next routine TAF issuance (given
model guidance suggesting it could get that far inland).

Steady southeasterlies prevail across the region Sunday morning
ahead of an approaching low pressure system, becoming breezy a
few hours after sunrise. By 6 AM CDT Sunday, showers and
thunderstorms should be approaching from the southwest,
overtaking the region and gradually lowering ceilings throughout
the daytime.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 340 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Low pressure will continue to slowly lift through far southeast
Manitoba/southwest Ontario today. Winds will shift more
westerly behind the front this morning. High pressure will then
move across Lake Michigan this afternoon and evening, bringing
light southerly winds, before another low pressure area
approaches from the west and moves across either central or
northern Lake Michigan Sunday night. Expect southeasterly winds
to increase as this low approaches. Waves Sunday will possibly
be enough for borderline small craft conditions.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across the lake
Sunday and Sunday night.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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