376
FNUS72 KMLB 020036
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for 53rd Street Brush Fire...Indian River County Emergency Services
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
836 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2100 EDT on June 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Predominantly dry weather is forecast to continue through tonight,
along with a steady onshore breeze around 10 mph (gusts to around
20 mph). LVORI of 4 to 5 and good to very good nighttime
dispersion is expected. Some settling of smoke is possible regardless,
so visibility on nearby roadways may become a concern later in
the night. Sunday morning, rain chances increase from onshore-
moving showers and perhaps an isolated lightning storm. The exact timing
and location of measurable rainfall is less certain at this time.

Through the day Sunday, east winds increase to around 15 mph with
gusts 20 to 25 mph. Dispersion values are forecast to be generally
good to very good with mixing heights around 4,000 to 5,000 feet.
Isolated rain showers and lightning storms are possible through
the day, mainly in the vicinity of remnant boundary or sea breeze
collisions, pushing back toward the east Florida coast by evening.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Dispersion index....11.
LVORI...............4.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 8 to 13 mph.

TIME (EDT)      9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........54  50  49  43  40  34  33  40  46
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............76  76  76  75  73  73  72  72  72
RH..............69  69  71  74  79  79  81  81  84
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  10  10  9   8   9   9
20 FT wind gust.20  21  20  16  15  15  15  15  16
Dispersion idx..13  13  13  11  11  9   8   8   10
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers in the morning. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Chance of showers late in the
                    morning.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 9 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 4600 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 15 mph.
Dispersion index....11 increasing to 54.
LVORI...............5 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........43     39     52     52     49     38
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20     20     30     40     40
LAL.............1      2      2      2      2      2
Temp............72     76     83     86     86     84
RH..............84     79     63     59     61     65
20 ft wind......E 6    E 7    E 10   E 13   E 15   E 14
20 ft wind gust.16     15     16     21     21     21
Mix hgt (ft)....400    2300   4200   4600   4400   4400
Transport wind..E 12   E 13   E 13   E 14   E 15   E 15
Dispersion idx..11     41     51     54     57     57
LVORI...........4      3      1      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Schaper
Requested by...Mason Kozac
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415482.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mkozac@indianriver.gov