274
FXUS64 KMOB 161748
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1248 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours. The first
of multiple waves of storm looks to approach the region from the
west during the overnight hours, bringing MVFR ceilings as well as
showers and thunderstorms to the area. Expect brief reductions in
visibility with some of the heavier activity and some gusty winds
as storms move through. Rain should move off to the east during
the morning hours, with additional rounds expected across the area
later on Friday and into Friday night. /96

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Dry weather conditions prevail through mid-evening before an
active period of weather begins around midnight and continues
through Saturday evening with multiple rounds of convection
featuring potential flash flooding and severe weather. More
details on this can be found below. High temperatures today will
be in the middle 80s to lower 90s, or about 3 to 6 degrees above
normal. Cooler highs in the lower to middle 80s will follow
through the remainder of the week due to the increase in cloud and
rain coverage. Overnight lows tonight and Friday night will be
in the middle 60s northern locations with lower 70s closer to the
coast, or about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Lows Saturday night
will be around 3 degrees cooler with the passage of a cool front.
A Moderate risk of rip currents will be in effect through tonight,
followed by a High risk through the rest of the week.

Severe Weather Potential...

Recent CAM guidance has suggested that the initial shortwave will
bring scattered to numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms
late tonight, with a fast moving complex of moderate to heavy
rain mainly affecting the southern zones. Wind gusts up to 50 mph
could occur with the stronger storms in the line of convection,
and possibly in the wake of the convection as the CAM guidance is
suggestion the development of a wake low. After a bit of a
reprieve Friday morning, strong to severe thunderstorms are then
forecast for Friday afternoon and evening. Several things have
changed with model guidance the past 24 hours, with increasing
confidence on strong to severe storms associated with this second
shortwave Friday afternoon and evening. Therefore, SPC has
expanded the Slight Risk of severe weather further east to now
include our entire forecast area. Damaging winds are the primary
risk across all areas Friday afternoon and evening, but a brief
tornado or two and isolated large hail are possible as well. There
should be a bit of a reprieve again after midnight Friday night,
before the third and final shortwave brings a return of high rain
chances to the area on Saturday.

The pre-storm environment in the warm sector after midday Friday
south of a northeastward moving warm front will have sufficient
MLCAPE values around 1,500 to 2,200j/kg. Deep layer shear values
as high as 50-55kts are expected by Friday evening. Models vary on
the hodograph signatures, but at best should only see 150 to 250
m2/s2 sfc-3km SRH at the time afternoon convection initiates. The
second round of severe weather will likely come during the day
Saturday. Confidence is lower with this third shortwave for the
development of severe weather, but we will continue to monitor and
provide updates as SPC currently has a Marginal Risk across our
forecast area.

Flash Flooding Potential...

We continue to have some confidence on the evolution of flash
flooding potential Friday afternoon through the remainder of the
week, mainly along northwest of I-65 on Friday and across the
eastern two-thirds of our forecast area on Saturday. Increased
ascent along with deeper Gulf moisture returning in the lower
levels will resulting in an increase in showers/storms through the
period to potentially bring several bouts of heavy rainfall with
event totals from 3-5 inches possible. The exact location of the
heaviest rainfall still remains uncertain, but would not be
surprised in some areas potentially seeing up to 7 inches of rain.
We will continue to monitor and provide updates and possible
Flood Watches as needed. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  85  70  82  68  89  67  91 /  60  70  60  80  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   72  83  73  80  70  87  70  89 /  50  60  50  80  30  10   0   0
Destin      73  83  74  81  72  86  71  87 /  30  50  40  80  40  10   0   0
Evergreen   67  85  69  82  65  87  64  91 /  40  80  70  90  30  10   0   0
Waynesboro  65  84  67  83  64  88  63  91 /  70  90  60  70  10   0   0   0
Camden      65  83  67  81  65  86  63  89 /  50  90  70  80  20  10   0   0
Crestview   67  87  70  82  65  89  64  92 /  30  60  50  80  30  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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