Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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122 FXUS63 KMPX 221948 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 248 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly along and north of I-94 through sunset this evening. Some small hail and graupel are possible with any of the stronger showers. - Warmer temperatures return briefly tomorrow with a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight ahead of a cold front. - Mild temperatures are expected through the holiday weekend with only low chances of showers into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 We`re enjoying a little break in the active weather of the past two days as yesterday`s system spins to the north over Ontario. Rainfall totals across the area generally range from 2-4 inches since Monday, with lower totals out west. Breezy west/northwest flow is keeping temperatures in the low to mid 60s early this afternoon with a nice diurnal Cu field across the area. A few isolated showers have popped up over the last hour or so across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin with the 500mb trough still lingering in the area. These showers will remain fairly isolated in nature, but may produce some small hail and gusty winds before diminishing by sunset. Southerly flow returns for tomorrow ahead of a low over the Dakotas, allowing for WAA and moisture to advect back into the region. Temperatures will make a run at 80 ahead of the cold front, but the timing of the frontal passage looks to be late Thursday night, missing the best window of instability. Still, a few stronger storms with hail and gusty winds are possible tomorrow night into early Friday from western into central Minnesota with most thunder potential decreasing by the time the line reaches eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Friday morning. QPF amounts are on the order of a quarter to a half inch, with locally higher amounts possible. Heading into the holiday weekend, temperatures look to be in the upper 60s to low 70s with daily slight chances for showers as an upper low is parked north of us. This weekend does not look to be a washout by any means at this point, with very low QPF amounts overall. A stronger embedded wave looks to swing through on Sunday, which will lead to the highest chances for scattered showers and storms, particularly across the southern half of the forecast area. It`s not until sometime Tuesday that this low finally moves out and we see slightly warmer temperatures and drier conditions return by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions through the period with SCT/BKN cumulus through sunset. Isolated showers are expected to develop later this afternoon, mainly along & north of Interstate 94, but the probability of rain impacting any one terminal (10-20%) is too low to include a mention in the TAF. A few instances of lightning are also possible with any of the showers this afternoon. Westerly winds will gust to 25-30 kts this afternoon, with speeds diminishing towards sunset & eventually dropping below 5 kts by 01-02Z. Winds back from southwesterly to southerly overnight into tomorrow morning. KMSP...Can`t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm late this afternoon in the vicinity of the terminal. Any impacts would be brief. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR/MVFR with -SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind SE 10-20 kts, becoming W 15-25 kts during the afternoon. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind E 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...ETA