939
FNUS73 KMPX 291206
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Sabolik SW...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
706 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Full sunshine today with RH values approach 30% this afternoon.
Winds will be generally easterly this morning with speeds around 5 mph.
A gradual shift to southeasterly winds is expected through the afternoon
with speeds increasing closer to 10 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........63 at ignition...Max 71.
RH..................54 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 9 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 9 to 14
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /37300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /80100 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  66  67  69  70  71  71  71  69  67  63  61
RH..............54  48  45  42  41  39  39  41  44  47  56  60
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..9   9   10  12  12  14  14  14  14  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.12  13  15  16  17  18  20  20  21  21  20  21
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.2 0.5 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.10  12  13  14  14  16  16  17  18  16  15  18
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (86600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning. Rain showers
                    likely in the afternoon. Chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 72.
RH..................Min 55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 16 to 22 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (90600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 29 mph increasing to 26 to 32 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Ahasic
Requested by...Troy Boschee
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415276.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL troy_boschee@fws.gov