593
FNUS73 KMPX 231324
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Gruven WMA...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
824 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Gruven WMA fire, southerly winds at ignition between 5-10
mph will increase to 10-15 mph by late morning with gusts near 20
mph. RH values are in the upper 60s and low 70s this morning and
will fall between 40-45 percent this afternoon. Precipitation
chances are low today, but showers and thunderstorms will become
likely overnight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........63 at ignition...Max 78.
RH..................72 percent at ignition...Min 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 10 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /16500 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /108100 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (114400 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 25 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  68  71  73  75  76  77  77  77  76  75  72
RH..............72  63  55  49  46  43  42  42  42  42  45  49
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..10  10  13  14  14  15  16  17  17  17  16  14
20 FT wind gust.15  17  18  20  21  22  23  24  24  24  23  22
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.9 3.7 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.2 2.5 0.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.17  18  20  20  23  23  24  23  25  28  25  21
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Temperature.........Min 59.
RH..................Max 97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (124100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to good (55400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night decreasing to fair (14700 knot-ft) early
                    in the evening decreasing to poor (9400
                    knot-ft) late in the night early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 28 mph decreasing to 18 to 23 mph
                    after 3 am.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms in the morning,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 69.
RH..................Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 16 to 17 mph shifting to the west
                    22 to 23 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (113600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (114400
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 23 to 26 mph shifting to the west 25
                    to 28 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Chad August
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414996.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Chad.august@state.mn.us