765
FXUS66 KMTR 291715
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1015 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

A few degrees warmer across the board today as the warm up
continues. Slight cool down over the weekend with another more
notable warming trend on the horizon next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 140 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

The upper low in the PacNW which slowed our warming trend slightly
pulls away today, and we begin to see 500 mb height rises with the
next ridge building in. With slightly drier air in place, very
limited overnight stratus. In fact, as of writing the only
locations seeing marine stratus are the coastal near Santa Cruz
and patchy areas along the Monterey Bay. This clear start to the
day will help boost daytime highs a little higher with what looks
like a wonderful day ahead, weather-wise. Expect highs in the low-
to-mid 80s inland, 70s around much of the immediate Bay Area, and
low-to-mid 60s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

The warm up continues with Thursday and Friday looking to be the
warmest. Each of these days are likely to see high temps in the
upper 80s to near 90 for inland areas, mid-to-upper 70s across the
immediate Bay Area, and a spread of low-to-upper 60s along the
coast. The warming trend is again thwarted by a deepening upper
trough in the Gulf of Alaska, extending into the PacNW. Only a few
degrees cooler, the weekend into early next week will be stellar
in terms of "outdoor weather".

Longer term guidance is hinting at a more robust ridge building
across the western half of the US by mid-to-late next week.
Perhaps among the warmest temperatures so far this year...about
6-12 degrees above normal. Stay tuned to the forecast for any
heat-related messaging that may be needed as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR through the TAF Period for all but the Monterey Bay, which will
see moments of IFR starting in the early Thursday morning. Breezy to
gusty winds build this afternoon, with stronger winds just off the
coast, Expect winds to become light to moderate overnight into the
late evening and early night. Expect some winds aloft to stay on the
stronger side, but not enough for much in the way of LLWS concerns.
Breezy winds are expected to return Thursday afternoon.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Gusty westerly winds
arrive  this afternoon with peak gusts around 30 kts. These winds
reduce into the early night, but stay moderate through the night and
Thursday morning. Breezy winds are expected Thursday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR Lasts through the late night with IFR
CIGs and pockets of mist and fog forming on the immediate coast
early Thursday morning, which will affect MRY. Moderate winds build
this afternoon but reduce into the late evening.&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1014 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

Strengthening surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean
will move east, tightening the pressure gradient, allowing for
strong northwesterly winds with gale force gusts to prevail today
and tomorrow. As this surface high pressure weakens and
retrogrades  to the west heading into the weekend, gale force
gusts will be  allowed to subside and northwesterly winds will be
allowed to slightly diminish although still remaining strong
through Saturday.  Significant wave heights build to 12 to 14 feet
by tomorrow with  an abating trend set for Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Sarment

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