650
FXUS61 KOKX 301009
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
609 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure over southeast New England will move slowly
away from the area today, with a weak low pressure trough
remaining in its wake through this evening. High pressure over
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will then build toward the Mid
Atlantic coast from late tonight into Friday night Saturday, and
move off the coast on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid level shortwave moving through the area attm, with the
attendant sfc low over southern MA. A few moderate to locally
showers have redeveloped underneath a mid level cold pool
associated with the low, and there could be isolated thunder
mainly before daybreak across the NYC metro area and Long
Island as it swings east.

The rain should be mainly across Long Island and S CT after 8
AM, and tapering off from west to east. As the mean longer wave
trough approaches later this afternoon into this evening,
isolated to sct showers should develop, and a few rumbles of
thunder may even be possible in spots, especially over SE CT.
This activity should end by late evening.

High temps today should reach the upper 60s across SE CT and the
fork of Long Island, lower 70s most elsewhere, and the mid 70s
across NYC and NE NJ, which is near normal. Low temps tonight
will range from the mid/upper 50s invof NYC, to 45-50 across
the interior and in the Long Island Pine Barrens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fair wx expected during this time frame along with a gradual
warmup as sfc high pressure builds toward the Mid Atlantic
coast and vis rising heights aloft as an upper ridge builds
toward the East Coast. High temps in the 70s on Friday will
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s in most places on Sat, with
lower/mid 70s confined to the immediate south shores of Long
Island and SE CT. Low temps Fri night should be similar to those
of tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday begins with a surface high pressure ridge not too far
offshore and an upper ridge overhead. The ridge aloft flattens
in the afternoon and evening with the approach and passage of a
shortwave. This may trigger a shower in spots Sunday afternoon
and night for western and far southern portions of the forecast
area.

Heights recover somewhat on Monday into Tuesday with surface
high pressure in control. Dry for Monday. Probably dry for
Tuesday as well with deep ridging, however don`t want to remove
slight chance/chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon and night just yet
as there`s a chance of a surface trough and shortwave aloft
triggering a shower. The pattern doesn`t change all that much
for Wednesday, but models seem to agree that the ridging shifts
more offshore. Slight chance/chance PoPs therefore for Wednesday
as well.

NBM was used for temperatures. Each day will feature highs above
normal, ranging mostly from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure passes east early this morning, followed by a
post-frontal trough lingering through the day. High pressure
builds in tonight.

SHRA probably ending by 12z for the city and LoHud terminals,
then a couple of hours thereafter farther east. Mainly VFR for
the city terminals and KSWF, but tempo MVFR anticipated for a
few hours before the showers end. MVFR elsewhere during the
rain, even some tempo IFR anticipated for KHPN and KGON, then
improving to VFR this afternoon. Can`t rule out a shower this
afternoon and early evening, however this would only bring a
brief reduction in VSBY if it were to occur.

NW-N winds increasing to 10-15kt during the morning push with
gusts 16-20kt mainly late this morning into early afternoon.
Winds then back slightly tonight as they diminish below 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Prevailing MVFR possible through around 11z. Start and end time
of gusts may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late tonight through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions expected for the most part. There could
be some wind gusts approaching 25 kt during mid to late
afternoon on the ern ocean waters in offshore flow in the wake
of departing low pressure, as well as seas building to 4 ft.

Although southerly winds increase on Sunday, they will likely
remain below advisory thresholds with seas building up to 3-4
ft by late in the day into Sunday night. Sub-advisory conditions
continue on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch, with localized
amts of 3/4 to 1 inch, are still possible into this morning.
Only nuisance impacts expected with this.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Have increased today`s rip current risk to moderate for the
Suffolk beaches, where combo of SE-S long period swells and
offshore flow 15 kt should build surf to 3-4 ft. Rip current
risk remains low for today for the Nassau and NYC ocean
beaches, and low for Friday for all the ocean beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG