370
FXUS64 KOUN 242121
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
421 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Evening)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

We are anticipating widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms
to develop this afternoon, as a cold front approaches south
central and southeastern Oklahoma. A dryline will also extend
south of the cold front across far southern Oklahoma (Ardmore
southward into northern Texas).

An extremely humid air mass, with upper 70s to near 80 degree
dewpoints over parts of east Texas, will continue to advect
northward into south central and southeast Oklahoma.  By afternoon,
heating will result in very high to extreme instability in the warm
sector. Hodographs are slightly curved near the surface, but are
generally straight. Although very large hail and damaging winds
are expected to be the main hazards, given the amount of
instability 3500-4500 J/kg, tornadoes can not be ruled out,
especially storms that move right of the mean storm motion. It is
possible that enough storms may form to effectively push the cold
front/boundary south and east of the area. Although much drier air
has filtered into northwest Oklahoma, an air mass change across
southeast Oklahoma will come from afternoon and evening
convection. Most of the storms are expected to be clear of Atoka
and Byran counties by 8 to 9 pm, perhaps earlier.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Somewhat similar to Thursday (May 23rd), moisture advection will be
underway early Saturday, as a shortwave trough approaches the
southern and central Plains.  A capping inversion will strengthen
through the morning and into the early afternoon with 25C to 30C 85H
temperatures overspreading a large part of West Texas and perhaps
far western Oklahoma.  Despite some model guidance, it appears
that at least a few storms will develop by late afternoon,
perhaps early evening. With better height falls expected across
the northern half of Oklahoma and perhaps better jet dynamics,
perhaps more storms will occur across the northern half of
Oklahoma. Given the instability 4000+ J/kg east of the dryline and
favorable hodographs, which will only improve through the early
evening, dangerous storms are expected. Storms that develop are
expected to move north and east of the area by midnight.

Another cold front will move through the area Sunday into Sunday
afternoon.  Although instability is not expected to be as high
by Sunday afternoon, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may
develop along a weak frontal boundary by mid afternoon.  Any storms
that form should move fairly quickly to the east by early evening.

With a frontal boundary south of the area on Monday, mainly dry
conditions are expected on Monday.

By Tuesday afternoon and evening, it`s possible that upslope flow
may result in afternoon convection over the higher terrain to our
west.  Storms may organize during the early evening and may impact
the area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

It`s possible that another MCS may move across the area late
Wednesday evening into Thursday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR/MVFR ceilings with stratus possible at some sites early
Saturday and mid/high clouds streaming across the area. Winds will
gradually shift towards the E and SE this TAF period as well.
Storms are possible in parts of south central/SE OK this evening,
mainly affecting KDUA. Variable, gusty winds and hail possible
with some of the storms. Isolated/widely scattered storms will be
possible late Saturday afternoon/evening with highest chances in
parts of northern OK. Currently coverage is expected to be low so
chances are too low to mention in most TAFs. Strong variable winds
will be possible near these storms along with large hail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  89  70  91 /   0  10  20   0
Hobart OK         57  93  66  93 /   0  20  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  64  94  73  97 /   0  20  10   0
Gage OK           53  91  60  90 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     56  87  69  88 /   0  10  40   0
Durant OK         67  90  73  94 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...25