Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
901 FXUS65 KPSR 232357 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 457 PM MST Thu May 23 2024 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will continue to hover around normal for this time of year over the next few days before an area of low pressure brushes past the region, cooling us down for the start of the weekend. Breezy to locally windy conditons will accompany this system, with the strongest winds focused over southeast California Friday afternoon/evening. Temperatures quickly warm up into the triple digits by the end of the Memorial Day Weekend into the start of the next work week. && .DISCUSSION... Current analysis continues to show weak troughing stretched out over the Desert Southwest, resulting in benign weather for our forecast area. Heights aloft over the next day or so will be around climatological normals for this time of year, leading to seasonal temperatures in the middle to upper 90s through the end of the week. SE California will see day-to-day temperatures cool a few degrees between today and Friday as a stronger troughing approaches the region. However, highs will remain in the middle 90s for lower elevation communities. Relatively cooler air will then spread over the entire Desert Southwest as the previously- mentioned system encompasses more of the region, resulting in daytime highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday afternoon for lower desert areas, a good 5-10 degrees below normal for late May. Widespread breezy to locally windy conditions will accompany the aforementioned disturbance, with the strongest gusts focused over parts of SE California Friday afternoon and evening. Gusts between 30-40 mph will be common over Imperial and Riverside Counties, with HREF guidance indicating high chances (>80%) of the areas around the Imperial Valley and Salton Sea observing wind exceeding advisory levels (gusts >40 mph). Due to the potential for these enhanced gusts, a Wind Advisory has been posted for the above-mentioned areas for late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. This advisory may be extended further east for the remainder of southern Imperial County towards the Colorado River Valley, but less confidence surrounds wind gusts reaching criteria for these areas. Elsewhere across our forecast area, gusts 20-30 mph will be common, with isolated higher gusts over enhanced terrain features. Breezy conditions will likely develop again on Saturday, with peak gusts around 30-35 mph over the high terrain of south-central Arizona and parts of SE California. However, at this time, the chances of seeing advisory-level gusts are too low to warrant the posting of more Wind Advisories. Global ensembles continue to agree that the trough will eject out of the region by Sunday before giving way to an amplified ridging pattern across much of the western CONUS by the end of the Memorial Day Weekend and the start of the next work week. Subsequent warming will quickly ensue, with temperatures rising back into the middle 90s by Sunday, rising further into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees for some areas by Monday. Day-to-day temperatures will continue to increase through the middle of next week as the ridge continues to dominate our forecast area. Afternoon highs by Tuesday across the lower deserts are forecasted to range between 100-105 degrees, with similar conditions expected again on Wednesday. This pattern will also promote tranquil and very dry conditions, with no rain chances anticipated potentially through the end of May. && .AVIATION...Updated at 2356Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF period. Winds will continue to favor diurnal tendencies, with a period of southerly winds expected mid/late morning Friday before veering toward a westerly component during the early afternoon. Ongoing breezy conditions this afternoon gusting upwards of 15-20 kts will subside this evening before gusts to around 20 kts return once again Friday afternoon. Otherwise, FEW-SCT high clouds will pass over the region throughout the period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: West winds will continue through most of the TAF period at KIPL while winds remain southerly at KBLH. Afternoon gusts upwards of 20- 25 kts will taper of this evening at the terminals before climbing back to around 25-30 kts going into tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, FEW-SCT passing high clouds will move over the region throughout the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions will exist both Friday and Saturday over parts of the western districts and high terrain of the eastern districts as a weak system helps to generate breezy to locally windy conditions. Strongest winds (30-40 mph peak gusts) will be focused over the western districts and enhances terrain areas, with 20-30 mph gusts expected elsewhere. MinRH values during this timeframe will increase from 10-15% Friday, to 10-20% Saturday. MaxRH will follow a similar trend, rising from 25-40% Friday, to 30-50% Saturday. For the remainder of today, dry conditions will persist as winds continue to follow diurnal tendencies, with occasional afternoon gusts near 20 mph. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ562-563-566- 567. && $$ DISCUSSION...RW AVIATION...Smith FIRE WEATHER...RW