145
FXUS62 KRAH 300129
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
925 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a
reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air to the area for the rest of the
week. High pressure will build in behind the front and remain in
place across the Mid Atlantic through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 925 PM Wednesday...

The front currently crossing the forecast area doesn`t have much of
a temperature difference nor a wind difference, but can primarily be
detected by a dewpoint gradient - RDU`s 9pm dewpoint was 50 degrees
while Rocky Mount`s was 65. As expected, all isolated showers that
developed were north or east of the forecast area, and it appears
that the rest of the night will remain dry. Although there are
currently a good amount of mid level clouds across the state, skies
should become mostly clear after midnight. Overnight lows will be a
couple degrees cooler than last night, with nearly all locations in
the 50s and some isolated low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 237 PM Wednesday...

Troughing will remain in place on Thursday. Much like today, a weak
shortwave aloft will rotate through the flow, over the mountains,
and into the Piedmont. However, Thursday`s wave will be displaced
much farther south and there are about 15-20/100 ensemble members
suggesting precip across portions of the northern Coastal Plain late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening. There will be very little to no
instability available by the time the wave arrives late in the day
so anything that develops should have a very limited thunder threat.
Similarly, given dry air in place across the area, QPF will be
limited to a few hundredths of an inch or less.

Temps Thursday will be a few degrees lower than today - highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s. Friday morning lows still in the low to mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH Wednesday/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

* Unseasonably cool and notably less humid on Friday and Saturday.
* Turning warmer and more humid early next with with a limited
  threat of a shower or storm.

A vigorous mid and upper level trough will move off the mid-Atlantic
and Carolina coast early Friday followed by a north to northwest
flow aloft into Saturday. A narrow mid and upper level ridge will
move into the mid-Atlantic on Saturday and off the coast by Saturday
night. At the low levels, a cool and dry air mass will move into the
region on Friday morning with dew points in the 40s and low level
thickness values in the 1360s to start the day. The result will be a
really nice weather day on Friday with mainly clear skies with highs
3 to 8 degrees below average, generally ranging in the mid and upper
70s. Lows Friday night into Saturday morning will range in the upper
40s to lower 50s, or about 6 to 10 degrees below average. Expect an
increase in mid and high clouds on Saturday as the ridge axis moves
overhead and cirrus clouds spill into the area. It will remain dry
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is near or just a
degree or two below average.  A light southerly flow develops on
Saturday and especially Saturday night resulting some dew point
recovery. In addition, a disturbance aloft moves into the region
providing a bit more cloud cover. These features should result in
milder lows on Sunday morning in the mid and upper 50s.

The upper level pattern becomes more zonal early next week and a few
disturbances aloft move toward the region, especially on Tuesday and
Wednesday. With surface high pressure setting up off the Southeast
coast, a southwesterly flow develops early in the week and continues
through Wednesday. This will result in a moderating air mass and an
increase in deep level moisture. PW values increase from around 0.5
inches on Friday to more than 1.5 inches on Wednesday. Accordingly,
there is a very small risk of a shower or storm on Monday with a
marginally greater but still rather limited risk on Tuesday or
Wednesday with PoPs generally in the slight to very low chance
range. Highs by Tuesday and Wednesday will moderate into the upper
80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. -Blaes
&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 705 PM Wednesday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24
hours. A weak cold front is currently moving across the region,
bringing some scattered clouds (but no precipitation) along with a
wind shift from the southwest to the northwest. Skies should clear
late this evening, with light northwesterly wind persisting through
the rest of the period.

Outlook: Dry VFR weather likely through Saturday with high pressure
overhead/offshore. As the high moves offshore Sunday, return flow
will advect moisture into the area with stratus/non-VFR weather
possible Sunday and Monday. Chances for rain will also return Sunday
through early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Green/Leins