Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
443 FXUS65 KREV 302017 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 117 PM PDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Above average temperatures and dry conditions will persist through early next week with a couple of passing systems enhancing afternoon winds Saturday and again Monday. Confidence is high in a significant warmup for the middle to late part of next week as temperatures approach 100 degrees in hottest western NV valleys. && .DISCUSSION... * UP-FRONT: No major changes. A couple of shortwaves will brush the area Sat/Mon and keeps things generally dry and warm with enhanced afternoon winds. Confidence is high in a big-time warmup next week with afternoon temperatures approaching 100 degrees in hottest western NV valleys. * THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK: Generally quiet through Monday as a couple of shortwave troughs moving through the PacNW brush our area and keep conditions dry and stable and temperatures near steady around 10 degrees above normal. Gusty west-southwest winds will accompany each system Saturday and again Monday afternoons with most gusts staying in the 25-35 mph range. This will result in a short period of local chop on area lakes, especially ones north of Hwy 50 where the gradients/mixing down of winds will be more pronounced. * NEXT WEEK`S HEAT: Heat will be the headline mid-late next week as confidence is high in a strong ridge developing over the PacNW and 500mb height anomalies again approaching 15+ DAM per the latest ensemble clusters. MOS guidance is pushing mid 90s which may be muted somewhat by climatology as blended guidance has highs pushing 100 degrees for western NV valleys Wed-Sat, including a 30-50% chance of hitting 100 degrees at Reno-Tahoe Intl Airport. No wonder the ECMWF EFI is highlighting CA and western NV as these numbers are usually not seen until early-mid July. For some perspective... the average first date for 100 degrees at the airport based on the latest 30-yr climate average is July 11th with the earliest recorded 100 degree reading of 100 degrees set on June 7th, 2013. * IMPACTS: Continue to exercise extreme caution if you are recreating near fast and cold streams as hypothermia can quickly catch you off guard if you are not prepared. Also get ready for at least moderate heat risks for the latter half of next week. Even overnights are only going to cool briefly. Last but not least, with this magnitude of heat, we cannot completely rule out a storm or two, especially Thu-Fri after we have had a couple of really hot days. Hohmann && .AVIATION... * Operational Period Thru 06Z Sat: VFR conditions. A few cumulus buildups may occur near KMMH, but probability of a storm is less than 10%. General northwest-northeast gradient with gusts 15-20 kts or less. * A couple of low pressure systems will brush the region Sat/Mon with increased W-SW breezes, gusts 25-30 kts. Expect some light to brief moderate turbulence. * Significant warmup Wed-Sat next week may lead to increased density altitude impacts as lower valleys approach 100 degrees and Sierra airports warm well into the 80s. Hohmann && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$