353
FXUS64 KSJT 311644
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1144 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Main focus continues to be the QLCS moving southeast across the
area early this morning. It has behaved itself lately and stayed
below severe levels but is still being closely monitored. Most of
this should move southeast and out of the area by sunrise. CAMs do
show more convection developing before sunrise across the South
Plains and Panhandle and tracking into West Central Texas to start
the morning off. Given how worked over the airmass is across the
area, a little dubious that the redevelopment will be quite as
widespread as some of the models indicate. Will continue to carry
POPs but will try to limit them to something less than "likely".

As for the afternoon and evening, should see some sun and a chance
for the atmosphere to destabilize once again, at least somewhat.
Hard to tell at this point how quickly the air mass will recover,
and where any leftover outflow boundaries will end up. Will carry
a mention of storms into the afternoon and evening, although
focused a little more on the eastern portions of the area where
the CAMs are a little more aggressive.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A familiar pattern for this time of year will set up across West
Central Texas this weekend and into early next week, with weak
ridging and nearly zonal flow aloft with a warmer and unstable
airmass building near the surface. However, models are showing
this setup to be slightly weaker than what we have seen this past
week so far. We`re generally expecting some diurnal showers and
isolated thunderstorms lingering into Saturday evening through
Monday, before a drier and even warmer airmass takes over and
begins to cook parts of West Central Texas under triple digit
high temperatures again. Ridging aloft will continue to strengthen
across the area, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper
90s to 106 range on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Finally got rid of the convection across the southern terminals
only to have additional convection develop farther north. Will
continue to use latest radar trends for best guess on timing of
this activity to the terminal locations, but in general it looks
like the central and northern sites are the most likely to see
anything. Otherwise, a mix of IFR, MVFR, and VFR cigs continue
across the area. These will gradually become VFR later this
morning and continue into the afternoon and evening. CAMs continue
to be uncertain about additional storm development later today and
given how uncertain it is, will leave out for now and see how it
develops before adding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     66  86  70  88 /  10  20  30  30
San Angelo  69  92  70  92 /  10  20  30  20
Junction    71  95  73  95 /  10  10  20  10
Brownwood   67  85  70  87 /  20  20  20  20
Sweetwater  67  87  69  89 /  10  30  30  30
Ozona       70  92  70  91 /  10  20  30  10
Brady       69  86  71  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...07