Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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353 FXUS64 KSJT 311644 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1144 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Main focus continues to be the QLCS moving southeast across the area early this morning. It has behaved itself lately and stayed below severe levels but is still being closely monitored. Most of this should move southeast and out of the area by sunrise. CAMs do show more convection developing before sunrise across the South Plains and Panhandle and tracking into West Central Texas to start the morning off. Given how worked over the airmass is across the area, a little dubious that the redevelopment will be quite as widespread as some of the models indicate. Will continue to carry POPs but will try to limit them to something less than "likely". As for the afternoon and evening, should see some sun and a chance for the atmosphere to destabilize once again, at least somewhat. Hard to tell at this point how quickly the air mass will recover, and where any leftover outflow boundaries will end up. Will carry a mention of storms into the afternoon and evening, although focused a little more on the eastern portions of the area where the CAMs are a little more aggressive. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A familiar pattern for this time of year will set up across West Central Texas this weekend and into early next week, with weak ridging and nearly zonal flow aloft with a warmer and unstable airmass building near the surface. However, models are showing this setup to be slightly weaker than what we have seen this past week so far. We`re generally expecting some diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms lingering into Saturday evening through Monday, before a drier and even warmer airmass takes over and begins to cook parts of West Central Texas under triple digit high temperatures again. Ridging aloft will continue to strengthen across the area, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 90s to 106 range on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Finally got rid of the convection across the southern terminals only to have additional convection develop farther north. Will continue to use latest radar trends for best guess on timing of this activity to the terminal locations, but in general it looks like the central and northern sites are the most likely to see anything. Otherwise, a mix of IFR, MVFR, and VFR cigs continue across the area. These will gradually become VFR later this morning and continue into the afternoon and evening. CAMs continue to be uncertain about additional storm development later today and given how uncertain it is, will leave out for now and see how it develops before adding. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 66 86 70 88 / 10 20 30 30 San Angelo 69 92 70 92 / 10 20 30 20 Junction 71 95 73 95 / 10 10 20 10 Brownwood 67 85 70 87 / 20 20 20 20 Sweetwater 67 87 69 89 / 10 30 30 30 Ozona 70 92 70 91 / 10 20 30 10 Brady 69 86 71 89 / 20 20 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...07