471
FXUS64 KSJT 020537
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Currently, we have temperatures in the 80s to near 90 degrees,
with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. This is yielding
CAPEs in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range across the area, along with
effective bulk shear values of 35 to 50 knots for the most part.
The dryline is well off to the west, and convection has developed
over the higher terrain to our west. These storms are expected to
move east toward our area during the evening hours, but skeptical
about how much progress they will be able to make into our area,
as they will be moving in during the evening hours as that
instability starts to wane. But, considering the combination of
instability/shear available, will include a mention of severe
weather potential for our western areas this evening, with the
best chances in Crockett County. The main concerns will be large
to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts.

For Sunday, similar conditions will yield another unstable
atmosphere by mid to late afternoon. So, we will have another
chance for isolated to widely scattered storms developing to the
west of the area, and moving into our western counties during the
late afternoon/evening hours, with some of these storms capable of
producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For Sunday night, the combination of an upper level disturbance,
a dryline to the west and strong/locally extreme instability will
result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the area during
the evening. A few storms may be severe with the main hazards
being large to very large hail and damaging winds.

Otherwise, expect hot and mainly dry conditions for much of this
week due to an upper level ridge building across the Southern
Plains and a 850 MB thermal ridge of 28-30 deg C. Highs will be
upper 90s to around 105 Tuesday through Thursday. Please follow
heat safety precautions. Expect slight cooler temperatures Friday
and Saturday with highs in the 90s to around 100.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Satellite images indicate the MCS feature across the northern
Edwards Plateau is providing mostly high level clouds across the
southern and western portions of the CWA late tonight. Ceilings
were near 3000ft at KBBD. Expect MVFR to VFR conditions to prevail
across west central Texas the rest of tonight into early Sunday
morning as low level moisture across the northern Edwards Plateau
and northwest Hill Country allows low level clouds to develop.
With the MCV moving eastward across the northern Edwards Plateau
and northwest Hill Country the rest of tonight...isolated
convection may develop across portions of the CWA early Sun
morning.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     89  72  95  71 /  20  30  10  10
San Angelo  94  74 100  74 /  10  30  10  10
Junction    95  76  98  74 /  10  20  10  10
Brownwood   88  72  92  69 /  20  20  10  20
Sweetwater  90  73  97  72 /  20  30  10   0
Ozona       91  74  96  73 /  10  20   0   0
Brady       89  73  92  71 /  10  20  10  10
&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...61