358
FXUS64 KSJT 011736
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1236 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

MCS rolling across the Big Country early this morning and will
likely be clearing the eastern portions of the area before
sunrise. So far it has pretty much stayed below severe levels and
it is likely to stay this way. Outflow from the storms have surged
south well ahead of the storms and into the Concho Valley and
Heartland with gusts over 40 mph hear at the San Angelo airport.
Given the fast movement, this outflow appears like it will
continue to push south and out of the area later this morning,
removing 1 focus for convective redevelopment this afternoon.

Latest CAMs do not show a lot of development for the afternoon
across West Central Texas, with just a little across the Permian
Basin and Trans Pecos late this afternoon working its way east
into the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau for the
evening. Given the air mass, will keep some small POPs in for the
afternoon hours with a little better chances for the western
portions of the area for tonight.

Temperatures are pretty close to normal, with highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

HRRR does show another outflow settling south into West Central
Texas for Sunday, with better chance for more convection Sunday
afternoon. Other CAMs are not as aggressive. Will generally carry
slight chance to chance POPs for Sunday and later forecasts can
fine tune based on whatever boundaries that get spawned today and
where they end up tomorrow. Otherwise, upper level ridge gradually
builds into the area for early in the week and this allows
temperatures to soar to near or above the 100 degree mark through
mid week. Tuesday still looks to be the hottest day with highs 102
to 106 in some areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Mainly VFR conditions across the area early this afternoon, with
only KSOA still hovering at higher end MVFR. All sites will be VFR
within the next few hours, with VFR conditions prevailing through
the overnight hours. Expect to see MVFR ceilings move back into
the area by around 12Z Sunday morning at KJCT and KSOA. Although
some ISO to SCT TSRA will approach the area later tonight,
confidence is not high enough in placement or coverage to
introduce a mention at this time. Otherwise, east to southeast
winds around 10 knots at most sites through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     69  89  72  96 /  20  30  20  10
San Angelo  69  92  74  99 /  20  20  10  10
Junction    71  95  76  99 /  20  10  10  10
Brownwood   69  88  72  91 /  20  20  20  10
Sweetwater  69  91  73  97 /  30  30  20  10
Ozona       69  90  74  97 /  30  10  10  10
Brady       69  88  73  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20