753
FXUS65 KSLC 021026
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
426 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...With an active northern stream remaining in control,
expect active weather to persist through late Monday. By
Wednesday, strong high pressure will bring the hottest airmass of
the summer to much of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Tuesday)...The active northern stream
continues to keep the short term forecast interesting, with models
trending toward a more substantial system Monday afternoon and
evening. Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates
a shortwave trough is progressing through the Great Basin, with a
relatively strong jet maxima approaching the Pacific Coast.

Expect the threat of high-based convection again today in
association with the previously mentioned shortwave trough,
though mainly across northern and eastern Utah. The best threat
for gusty and erratic microburst winds will be across eastern
portions of the CWA.

A significant portion of the guidance envelope has shifted toward
a further south solution for the cold front Monday afternoon and
Monday evening. While the best jet support for precipitation will
be near to just north of the Utah/Idaho border, expect a band of
showers and thunderstorms, heaviest across northern Utah, to cross
the area Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible for portions of central and
southern Utah, though the far south will likely remain dry and
hot.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday)...A drier post-frontal northwest
flow will be in place through Tuesday. It will be the coolest day
of the week throughout southwest Wyoming and most of Utah, with
valley high temperatures mainly upper 70s or low 80s. The
exception will be far southern Utah, where less cold air advection
is forecast from the Monday into Tuesday storm system. Lower
Washington County and Lake Powell highs will range from the upper
90s to low 100s.

Confidence is high on a powerful ridge building in from the west
Wednesday. The ridge will be in place at least into the weekend,
bringing unseasonably warm conditions. Highs Wednesday will get
into the upper 80s for most northern valleys, roughly 5-10F warmer
than normal, and into the 90s and 100s for southern valleys,
10-15F warmer than normal. With strong subsidence and minimal
moisture, clear skies are likely throughout southwest Wyoming and
Utah.

Conditions will be similar Thursday, with the main difference
being temperatures around 5F warmer. That will put some locations
in record high territory, but in general, forecast highs and lows
are slightly cooler than records. By later Thursday, models bring
some mid and upper level moisture, especially into southern Utah.
While conditions will be dry, clouds could have some impact on
warming in that portion of Utah.

Moisture will build northward Friday. Although forcing will be
limited, enhanced moisture and daytime warming will likely bring
at least scattered clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms,
mainly in the mountains. Although temperatures aloft will be
similar to Thursday, maximum warming could be limited with more
clouds and definitely with showers or thunderstorms. &&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light southeast winds will last through around
17Z when winds transition to northwest. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms from 20-03Z will primarily be to the east. Winds
will transition to southeast around 04Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Isolated showers from
20-03Z for portions of eastern Utah will be capable of gusty,
erratic outflow winds. Gusty west to southwest winds will peak
around 25 knots from 18-03Z for southwest Wyoming and southern
Utah.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated high-based convection will again be a threat
across northern and eastern Utah today, while southern Utah
remains warm, dry and breezy. Minimum humidities will trend higher
for much of the region Monday. A stronger cold front will bring
the threat of wetting rain to northern Utah Monday afternoon into
Monday evening, with a chance of precipitation for portions of
central and southern Utah. A strong area of high pressure will
build into the area Wednesday, bringing the hottest temperatures
of the season. By Friday, mid- level moisture may begin to
increase bringing the threat of dry lightning to portions of the
state.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Wilson

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