400
FNUS75 KTFX 290936
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Two Calf RX...BLM
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
336 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on May 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A passing cold front will cause winds to shift westerly and increase
by mid morning, as well as bring scattered showers. However, shower
and thunderstorm coverage in the afternoon on the leading edge of a
disturbance, with strong erratic wind gusts and brief heavy downpours
being the main threats. Overall, though, the probabilities for
measurable rainfall on the fire area have decreased a bit to 40-50%
for 0.10 inches, 20-25% for 0.25 inches, and 5-10% for 0.50 inches.
Showers and thunderstorms will then decrease overnight as the
disturbance moves through the area, but the winds will remain breezy.
A few showers are possible on the back side of the disturbance on
Thursday, as the westerly winds become gusty once again.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers in the morning, then numerous rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................45 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....67-72.
Min humidity........39-44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Breezy. East winds 5 to 15 mph to shift northwest
                    at 15 to 25 mph by 0900 MDT with gusts up to 30
                    mph by 1200 MDT. Erratic wind gusts up to 40 mph
                    possible near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 25 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
                    cloudy (30-40 percent). Scattered rain showers
                    and isolated thunderstorms early in the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....43-48.
Max humidity........51-56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in
                    the evening. Erratic wind gusts up to 40 mph
                    possible near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 20 mph.
Haines Index........

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....60-65.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Breezy. West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to
                    around 40 mph.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 35 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Coulston
Requested by...Jay Peterman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415143.1/TFX
.DELDT 05/29/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jpeterman@blm.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov