581
FXUS63 KTOP 011119
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
619 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clouds clearing this afternoon with a dry day expected. Storm/rain
chances move in later this evening and overnight.

- Active pattern continues Sunday and through Wednesday with
  rain/storm chances daily.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Early this morning, mid-level water vapor imagery shows a slow-
moving shortwave that has pushed into Missouri with associated rain
and storms as mid-level subsidence builds in behind the wave in
eastern Kansas. Low-level moisture across eastern Kansas has not
moved much and has remained trapped below the sinking mid-level air
leading to a spreading deck of stratus and patchy, dense fog. Over
the next several hours, areas that can clear out stratus could
continue to see patchy dense fog development as Td depressions hover
around a degree or two across the CWA. Will continue to monitor the
need for a dense fog advisory if fog can become widespread, but at
this time, the boundary layer remains just mixed enough for low
stratus.

Over the course of the day, the upper low will continue to advect
east of the area, ushering in a brief period of dry weather across
the area. Clouds will scatter out by the mid to late afternoon,
creating a nice afternoon with temperatures reaching the low 80s.
This will be rather short lived as vorticity maximums ejecting off
the Rockies spark another round of convection in western Kansas.
This will move east late this evening and overnight into Sunday
morning. A few storms within a line of convection could be strong to
severe as they approach central and north-central Kansas with
parameters capable of sustaining strong updrafts. That said, as
convection develops a well-balanced cold pool, the main axis of QPF
should begin follow the main instability gradient orientated from
central KS towards southeast KS, keeping much of the area clear of
storms. CAMs and other medium range guidance has come into more
agreement with this solution. Some scattered convection could
continue during the day Sunday given weak perturbations passing over
the central Plains, but will be very dependent on how worked over
the atmosphere is from the previous morning`s convection. Will need
to watch for any mesoscale boundaries that get laid out during the
day Sunday for a better idea on PoPs. Confidence in the coverage of
storms Sunday afternoon is not high with weak capping in place, but
with copious amounts of instability and sufficient shear, if a
storm can get going, it will likely become strong to severe
quick. By Sunday evening, another wave pushing out of the
Rockies will again increase PoPs over the area. Better forcing
and shear remain north of the forecast area, but a few storms
moving into the area later Sunday evening and overnight could be
strong to severe. It is important to keep in mind that with the
set up over the next several days, each wave will have some
impact on the next one so predictability is on the low end with
finer details.

Long range guidance has continued to remain consistent in bringing a
more substantial wave across the northern Plains Tuesday into
Wednesday that also has the potential to impact the area with
storms. Tuesday will see strong low-level moisture advection from an
open Gulf, pushing upper 60 and possibly low 70 degree Tds into
eastern KS. As for lift, upper level support will be best nearest to
the main upper low in the Dakotas, but should sweep a cold front
across the area that will help to increase PoPs across the area
again. There still is some discrepancies with how far south
sufficient forcing and shear will get. If the best forcing remains
further north then rain and few storms will be the main show along
the frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall will also be a potential threat
given the amount of moisture in place. All of this will continue to
be monitored over the coming days for impactful changes.

Beyond Tuesday/Wednesday`s system, cluster analysis continues to hit
on a large ridge setting up over the western CONUS, extending into
the central Plains. This should usher in some drier and warm weather
by mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

IFR to low-end MVFR stratus hang around the TAF sites currently
with patchy, dense fog forming in areas where stratus has become
scattered. This will remain the trend over the morning hours
this morning before clearing and scattering out to VFR TAFs by
18z. Have Tempo groups in over the next few hours to account for
the fog and sudden changes in cloud decks. For the remainder of
the TAF, light winds and mostly clear skies will be expected
outside of some high and mid clouds moving in overnight and into
Sunday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer