Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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593 FXUS63 KTOP 310941 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 441 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered areas of heavy rainfall to continue through this morning with areas possibly seeing several inches of rainfall. - Scattered rain and storms continue into this evening before tapering off overnight into Saturday AM. - Off and on rain/storm chances remain in the forecast through Wednesday mostly with nocturnal convection working east into the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 441 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Low and mid-level water vapor this morning shows a large MCS sprawled out over TX, and a very slow moving MCV parked over central Kansas that has been the main lifting mechanism for ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall across eastern Kansas. VWPs show the LLJ helping to pump additional low-level moisture into eastern Kansas that has led to very efficient rainfall rates within showers and storms. Over the next several hours, guidance does not show much movement of the MCV. With the associated theta-e ridge, PWs around 1-1.5 inches and continued synoptic and mesoscale lift in the eastern periphery of the MCV, expect scattered to widespread showers and some thunderstorms to continue into this afternoon and evening, mainly across eastern KS. CAMs do depict scattered single-cell convection this afternoon across the central and western portion of the CWA as instability increases a bit, but the best area for widespread rainfall should be confined to areas east of MHK. Given all the aforementioned parameters, a large swath of 1-3 inches of precipitation can be expected across eastern Kansas with localized areas of 4-5 inches possible. Short range ensemble guidance tends to agree with this solution with PMMs from the SREF painting areas of 3- 6 inches across east-central KS. With ongoing rain and storms today, temperatures will not fluctuate much, mainly staying in the upper 60s and low 70s. By this evening and into Saturday morning, the mid-level vorticity max/MCV pushes east into Missouri shifting precipitation east with it. This will usher in a brief dry period for much of the day Saturday. In response, skies should clear a bit Saturday afternoon and help temperatures to bump back into the 80s. The dry weather will likely end as the next vorticity max advects into the central Plains Saturday night into Sunday morning. Convection initiation should begin in the high Plains where better lift and instability reside and then push rain and storms towards eastern KS by early Sunday AM. As the line of convection approaches central and eastern Kansas, a less favorable environment for strong to severe storms will be in place, so a weakening trend in storms seems likely. That said, cannot rule out a few strong storms within the line to be present across central and north-central KS Saturday night and Sunday morning. A similar pattern will continue across the forecast area into mid next week as weak perturbations within the zonal flow pass over the central Plains Sunday PM, Monday PM, and possibly again Tuesday. With the synoptic set up, minimal confidence exists in how far east severe convection will be possible each evening. Most long-range guidance keeps higher confidence in severe weather off to the west of the forecast area, so this will need to be monitored over the coming days for any impactful changes. Over this time period, temperatures will remain in the 80s, some seeing temperatures approaching 90 degrees, over the course of the week as a summer-like weather pattern sets up. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Increasing low level moisture from widespread SHRA with a few embedded TSRA anticipated to spread north towards KTOP/KFOE aft 06Z, lowering cigs to IFR overnight. Coverage of SHRA over KMHK is more uncertain based on short term models so have kept cigs at low end MVFR. Slow moving SHRA exits northward between 11Z-15Z. Conditions return to MVFR for much of the daytime period. There may be a break in activity before scattered SHRA with isolated TSRA redevelops aft 21Z. Coverage is of question so opted to not add to the TAF. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Prieto