Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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346 FXUS63 KUNR 271016 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 416 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warmer today and Tuesday - Thunderstorms return for the last half of the week. Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday) Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 Water vapor shows compact shortwave across the Dakotas. A few Lingering showers across northwestern an southwestern South Dakota will end early this morning as shortwave slides eastward. Dry weather expected for today with breezy northwest winds across the South Dakota plains. Upper level ridge builds across the area tonight/Tuesday with an uptick in temperatures. Highs mainly in the 70s Tuesday and 80s on Wednesday. Upper trough digs across the Rockies Wednesday with lead impulse moving into the western Dakotas Wednesday afternoon/evening. Low level moisture increases with robust southerly flow. With MLCAPE around 1500J/KG in the vicinity of the Black Hills Wednesday afternoon and sufficient shear for rotating updrafts, there is potential for some large hail/damaging wind gusts. Upper trough will impact the area through the weekend as it slowly moves eastward through the Northern Plains. This will bring a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued At 415 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Breezy northwesterly winds will develop over the western SD plains where some gusts to over 30 kts can be expected during the late morning and afternoon hours. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7 AVIATION...Wong